Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Palomino M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 5
Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar Deportes, Movistar TV App
South-america	DGO Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Cajamarca

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.4	4.1	Watch
	1.85	3.35	4.15	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.3
	1.85	3.43	4.32	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4
	1.89	3.3	4.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.62)	3.33 ↓ (3.87)	4.16 ↓ (5.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
49.8%

Draw
27.9%

Cajamarca
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

24.2%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

23.1%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Garcilaso's form might have worsened.

Cajamarca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Garcilaso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Cajamarca Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportivo Garcilaso will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zubczuk P. (C) 55. Canales E. 2. Salazar A. 19. Gomez A. 23. Moreno X. 14. Torrejon C. 10. Sandoval K. 27. Ascues A. 18. Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 8. Gonzalez A. 24. Olivares C.	29. Barrios I. (C) 17. Garro L. 3. Ganoza M. 2. Duarte B. 13. Caro D. 8. Dioses D. 16. Figuera A. 22. Camacho D. 10. Lliuya M. 19. Munoz A. 9. de Jesus M.
Substitutes
11. Arancibia F. 31. Barbieri J. (G) 13. Benincasa H. 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 35. Mendoza J. 22. Portales J. 17. Ramirez S. 7. Sinisterra J. 33. Villacorta S.	11. Arroyo A. 21. Bettocchi R. (G) 15. Cantt J. 6. Cavagna F. 18. Galvez S. 7. Nunez J. 35. Paredes G. 14. Rasmussen M. 27. Serra P.
Coaches
Dominguez S.	Bustos C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Ganoza M. 🟨,
40', Camacho D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Sandoval K. ↓, Arancibia F. ↑,
57', Lliuya M. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
58', de Jesus M. ↓, Arroyo A. ↑,
58', Moreno X. ↓, Benincasa H. ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Olivares C. ⚽, Arancibia F. (A),
70', Camacho D. ↓, Nunez J. ↑,
71', Dioses D. ↓, Serra P. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Arancibia F. ⚽, Olivares C. (A),
76', Canales E. 🟨,
78', Figuera A. 🟨,
79', Salazar A. 🟨,
81', Salazar A. ↓, Portales J. ↑,
81', Ascues A. ↓, Sinisterra J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1.

Deportivo Garcilaso has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cajamarca has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Cajamarca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Deportivo Garcilaso is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Deportivo Garcilaso: Da Silva B. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Deportivo Garcilaso: Nunez O. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Cajamarca: Medina J. (Broken Hand)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	7	1	3	18:7	11	22
18	Cajamarca	10	0	2	8	11:24	-13	2

Last Results with these Odds

Cajamarca - the odds 5.16 are the expected chance of winning is 18.12%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
11.05.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
04.05.26	Los Chankas - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Deportivo Garcilaso	4:1 ✺
18.04.26	Sport Huancayo - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWLL
- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
08.05.26	Cajamarca - Cajamarca	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Cajamarca - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Cajamarca	3:2 ✺
15.04.26	Cajamarca - Sport Huancayo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
25.09.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cajamarca	0:0
03.05.25	Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:1
12.07.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cajamarca	1:0
26.01.24	Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0
03.09.23	Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0
16.04.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cajamarca	2:2

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