Match Info

Championship - Round 36

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Hay J. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	19:45	Saints TV


	Ayr United		St. Johnstone

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.75	1.62
	4	3.5	1.71
	4.65	3.75	1.65	Watch
	4.95	3.85	1.65
	4.6	3.79	1.72	Watch
	4.6	3.6	1.67
	4.74	3.95	1.7	Watch
	3.75	3.55	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.47 ↑ (3.75)	3.72 ↑ (3.48)	1.7 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
20.7%

Draw
24.9%

St. Johnstone
54.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.6%

26.5%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.4%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

St. Johnstone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Johnstone's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Johnstone than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Johnstone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ayr United - St. Johnstone Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: St. Johnstone will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mitchell D. (G) 2. McAllister N. 20. King L. 5. Holt K. 33. McMann S. 8. Dempsey B. (C) 6. Bannigan S. 18. Hislop J. 15. Murphy J. 3. Dick L. 7. Dowds A.	1. Steward T. (G) 33. Smith L. 15. Baird J. 4. Boyes M. 14. Foulds M. 8. Svedberg J. 7. Holt J. (C) 19. Steven T. 22. Mallan S. 21. Fotheringham K. 18. Paton R.
Substitutes
34. Douglas J. 55. Finney G. 29. McRoberts L. 38. Russell L. (G) 16. Summers B. 31. Thompson M. (G) 12. Turley F. 4. Want S. 32. Watret D.	27. Agyeman A. 9. Fowler J. 24. McPake J. 5. Mikulic B. 49. Robertson J. 11. Stanton S. 39. Thomson K. (G) 2. Tumilty R.
Coaches
Rankin J.	Valakari S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Fotheringham K. ⚽, Holt J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Mallan S. ↓, Stanton S. ↑,
59', Steven T. ↓, Fowler J. ↑,
62', McMann S. ↓, Watret D. ↑,
64', McAllister N. 🟨,
66', McAllister N. ↓, Finney G. ↑,
67', Hislop J. ↓, Summers B. ↑,
76', King L. ↓, Douglas J. ↑,
80', Boyes M. 🟨,
89', Paton R. ↓, Robertson J. ↑,
89', Fotheringham K. ↓, Agyeman A. ↑,
90+1', Smith L. ↓, Tumilty R. ↑,

Preview

St. Johnstone is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Premiership

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 2.

Ayr has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

St. Johnstone is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, St. Johnstone is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayr won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1.5:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ayr	11	3	3	5	10:12	-2	12

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Ayr: 0.82%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
25.04.26	Airdrieonians - Ayr United	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Ross County - Ayr United	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Ayr United - Arbroath	1:0 ✺
07.04.26	Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic	0:3 ✺
04.04.26	Ayr United - Partick Thistle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWLT
- St. Johnstone FC
Scottish Football Championship
24.04.26	St. Johnstone - Raith Rovers	2:0 ✺
21.04.26	Dunfermline Athletic - St. Johnstone	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	St. Johnstone - Airdrieonians	4:0 ✺
04.04.26	Arbroath - St. Johnstone	2:4 ✺
28.03.26	St. Johnstone - Queens Park	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
28.02.26	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	3:1
Scottish Challenge Cup
17.02.26	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	3:4 penalties
Scottish Football Championship
12.12.25	Ayr United - St. Johnstone	2:4
04.10.25	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	0:0
Scottish League Cup
25.07.23	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	1:2
23.07.22	St. Johnstone - Ayr United	1:0
Scottish Cup
08.02.20	Ayr United - St. Johnstone	1:2

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