Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 24

Date: 12 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio Nacional do Jamor (Lisbon - Oeiras)

Referee: Godinho L. (Por)


	BSAD		Tondela

	1	X	2
	2.88	3	2.4
	2.8	2.95	2.37
	2.75	2.95	2.5
	2.9	3.05	2.46
	3.13	3.14	2.54
	2.75	2.9	2.5
	2.86	3.18	2.43
	2.85	3	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.75)	3.02 ↓ (3.06)	2.45 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BSAD
32.1%

Draw
30.4%

Tondela
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

30.2%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

29.4%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BSAD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	66.7%	25%

BSAD - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. BSAD will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tondela will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches BSAD won 2.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Tondela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 17 head-to-head matches BSAD won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 21-17.

Including matches at home between the teams BSAD won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BSAD
Portuguese Liga 2
05.03.23	Feirense - BSAD	0:1 ✺
26.02.23	BSAD - Nacional	0:1 ✺
19.02.23	Moreirense - BSAD	4:1 ✺
13.02.23	BSAD - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
08.02.23	Famalicão - BSAD	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLLTL
- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
04.03.23	Tondela - Torreense	1:1 ✺
26.02.23	Estrela da Amadora - Tondela	0:0 ✺
17.02.23	Tondela - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Covilhã - Tondela	1:0 ✺
05.02.23	Benfica B - Tondela	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
16.09.22	Tondela - BSAD	3:1
Liga Portugal
07.03.22	Tondela - BSAD	1:1
03.10.21	BSAD - Tondela	0:2
11.05.21	Tondela - BSAD	1:3
25.01.21	BSAD - Tondela	2:0
01.07.20	BSAD - Tondela	1:1
01.12.19	Tondela - BSAD	0:1

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