Match Info

Cymru South - Round 4

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday


	Caerau Ely		Baglan Dragons

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.5	3
	1.79	3.78	3.81
	1.96	3.56	3.51	Watch
	2.02	3.56	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.02)	3.6 ↓ (3.75)	3.36 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerau Ely
47.1%

Draw
25.5%

Baglan Dragons
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

24.2%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Caerau (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
75', 1 - 0, Griffiths D. (Pen),
80', 1 - 1, Davies R. ⚽,
84', 2 - 1, Gullick L. ⚽,
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

Baglan Dragons has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Caerau is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Caerau won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Caerau won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Ammanford - Caerau Ely	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Cardiff Draconians - Caerau Ely	0:1 ✺
08.08.25	Caerau Ely - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLWWT
- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
13.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cardiff Draconians	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Baglan Dragons - Newport City	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
11.01.25	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	2:1
01.11.24	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	2:1
20.01.24	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	2:0
06.10.23	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	3:0

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