Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Patria (Sucre)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV3
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Independiente Petroleros		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	15	7	1.18	Watch
	14.5	6.9	1.15	Watch
	12.02	6.8	1.15
	14.39	6.45	1.2	Watch
	13	6	1.18	Watch
	16.5	7.09	1.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	14.24 ↑ (5.83)	6.71 ↑ (4.82)	1.17 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Petroleros
6.5%

Draw
13.9%

Botafogo RJ
79.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.2%

19.6%

64.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

19%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Petroleros has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Petroleros's form might have worsened.

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Botafogo RJ's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Petroleros than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Petroleros, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Botafogo RJ, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Independiente Petroleros - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez J. (G) 3. Eduardo 27. Navarro D. 5. Palma L. 16. Montero R. 4. Rodriguez F. 7. Cardozo R. 93. Willie 6. Rojas D. 19. Cristaldo G. (C) 23. Rivas R.	22. Neto (G) 4. Ponte M. 5. Ferraresi N. 20. Barboza A. 13. Alex Telles (C) 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 6. Medina C. 75. Huguinho 10. Montoro A. 19. Arthur Cabral 59. Kauan Toledo
Substitutes
88. Adelan 39. Grass P. 32. Leanos H. 11. Lutkowski R. 20. Mercado A. 14. Urdininea C. 50. Vargas D. 12. Vera J. (G) 59. Villavicencio J. 99. Wagner Pinote 77. Zamora R.	14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 45. Caio Valle 30. Correa J. 88. Edenilson 34. Justino G. 21. Marcal 9. Ramos C. 1. Raul Steffens (G) 23. Rodriguez S. 2. Vitinho 55. Wallace Davi
Coaches
Thiago Leitao	Carvalho F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Eduardo 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Medina C. ⚽,
29', Rodriguez F. ↓, Leanos H. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Navarro D. ↓, Mercado A. ↑,
61', Arthur Cabral ↓, Ramos C. ↑,
62', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Caio Valle ↑,
63', Willie ↓, Adelan ↑,
67', Montero R. 🟨,
73', Cristaldo G. ↓, Lutkowski R. ↑,
73', Montero R. ↓, Wagner Pinote ↑,
73', Huguinho ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
77', Montoro A. ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
78', Kauan Toledo ↓, Correa J. ↑,
82', 0 - 2, Barrera J. ⚽, Correa J. (A),
84', Lutkowski R. 🟨,
87', 0 - 3, Gutierrez J. (Own goal),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Botafogo is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ind Petroleros won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Petroleros
Bolivian Division Profesional
13.05.26	Independiente Petroleros - Blooming	3:1 ✺
10.05.26	Independiente Petroleros - Always Ready	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Independiente Petroleros - Caracas	2:3 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
01.05.26	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Independiente Petroleros	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Independiente Petroleros	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTLTL
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Corinthians	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Chapecoense - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Racing	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Remo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Independiente Petroleros	3:0

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