Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
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Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
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Chile	Disney+
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Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 7
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 7
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Portugal	Sport TV1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 7, Inter
World	Onefootball, Pluto TV


	Cruzeiro		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.37	3	3.1
	2.52	2.88	3.05
	2.48	3.02	3.4
	2.48	2.97	3.21	Watch
	2.5	2.75	3
	2.69	2.85	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.38)	2.91 ↑ (2.72)	3.11 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
37.3%

Draw
32.4%

Boca Juniors
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

34.7%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

35.4%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Boca Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Boca Juniors, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	42.9%	0%

Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Boca Juniors (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Boca Juniors (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Otavio Costa (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. (C) 11. Gerson 99. Arroyo K. 10. Matheus Pereira 88. Christian 19. Kaio Jorge	12. Brey L. (G) 23. Weigandt M. 2. Di Lollo L. 32. Costa A. 3. Blanco L. 25. Ascacibar S. 5. Paredes L. (C) 18. Delgado M. 36. Aranda T. 16. Miguel Merentiel 28. Bareiro A.
Substitutes
9. Bruno Rodrigues 91. Chico 43. Joao Marcelo 2. Kaua Moraes 16. Lucas Silva 31. Matheus Cunha (G) 8. Matheus Henrique 17. Sinisterra L. 25. Villalba L. 22. Villarreal N. 94. Wanderson 12. William Furtado	15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 29. Angel Romero 24. Barinaga J. 30. Belmonte T. 27. Braida M. 4. Figal J. 13. Garcia J. (G) 9. Gimenez M. 26. Pellegrino M. 20. Velasco A. 7. Zeballos E. 22. Zenon K.
Coaches
Artur Jorge	Ubeda C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Paredes L. 🟨,
25', Kaio Jorge 🟨,
29', Fagner 🟨,
40', Gerson 🟨,
40', Bareiro A. 🟨,
45+1', Bareiro A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fagner ↓, Kaua Moraes ↑,
62', Aranda T. ↓, Figal J. ↑,
62', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
75', Arroyo K. ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
75', Romero L. ↓, Villarreal N. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Villarreal N. ⚽, Kaio Jorge (A),
87', Blanco L. 🟨,
87', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
88', Kaio Jorge ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
90', Costa A. 🟨,

Preview

Cruzeiro is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Boca Juniors is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cruzeiro might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Cassio (Knee Injury) Fagner (Inactive) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Villarreal N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Cavani E. (Lower Back Injury) Marchesin A. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Cruzeiro: 5.59%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Remo - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Goiás - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Cruzeiro - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Cruzeiro - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTWLW
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.04.26	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	0:4 ✺
19.04.26	River Plate - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Boca Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.04.26	Boca Juniors - Independiente	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Universidad Católica - Boca Juniors	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
22.08.24	Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors	3:1 penalties
15.08.24	Boca Juniors - Cruzeiro	1:0
Copa Libertadores
04.10.18	Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors	1:1
19.09.18	Boca Juniors - Cruzeiro	2:0

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