Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 22

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Bahia		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.40	3.70	Watch
	2.00	3.60	3.50
	1.95	3.40	3.80	Watch
	2.10	3.52	3.91
	2.02	3.59	3.59	Watch
	2.05	3.45	3.75
	2.09	3.47	3.78	Watch
	2.07	3.50	3.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.85)	3.49 ↓ (3.66)	3.72 ↓ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
46.9%

Draw
27.4%

Vasco da Gama
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

25.7%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Bahia - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 7. Ademir 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 6. Jean Lucas 11. Rodrigo 12. Willian Jose 9. Veliz A.	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 8. Jair 3. Tche Tche 28. Adson 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 7. David 20. Brenner
Substitutes
8. Caio Alexandre 63. David Martins 27. Everaldo 17. Herrera G. (G) 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 3. Moreno M. 99. Olivera C. 23. Sanabria M. 66. Ze Guilherme	88. Cauan Barros 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 18. Hinestroza M. 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 37. Pablo (G) 83. Ramon Rique 2. Rodriguez J. 10. Rojas J. 4. Saldivia A. 77. Spinelli C. 64. Walace Fernandes
Coaches
Mucke R.	Emanuel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Cuiabano 🟨,
37', Thiago Mendes 🟨,
43', Ademir ↓, Kaue Junior ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Brenner ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
46', Cuesta C. ↓, Saldivia A. ↑,
46', Luciano Juba ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
64', Jean Lucas ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
64', Willian Jose ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
72', Adson ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
74', David ↓, Ramon Rique ↑,
77', Ademir 🟨,
86', Jair ↓, Cauan Barros ↑,
86', Rodrigo ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3.

Bahia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vasco is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bahia could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury) Erick Pulga (Yellow Cards) Leo Vieira (Knee Injury) Moreno M. (Lacking Match Fitness) Olivera C. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Vasco: Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Erick (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:17. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:4. (average 2:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 4.06 are the expected chance of winning is 23.23%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
29.07.26	Fluminense - Bahia	0:0 ✺
26.07.26	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	1:1 ✺
17.07.26	Bahia - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.26	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTTWL
- Vasco da Gama
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:3 ✺
01.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.07.26	Vasco da Gama - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.07.26	Vasco da Gama - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.07.26	Independiente Medellín - Vasco da Gama	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	0:1
23.11.25	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	1:0
24.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	3:1
28.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	3:2
26.06.24	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	2:1
03.09.23	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	1:1
01.05.23	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	0:1

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