Match Info

Baiano - Round 1

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TVE Bahia


	Bahia		Jequié

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.15	3.7
	1.94	3.19	3.78	Watch
	2	2.9	3.3
	1.94	3.23	4.07
	2.12	3.1	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.65)	3.11 ↓ (3.56)	3.7 ↓ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
45.9%

Draw
29.4%

Jequié
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

25.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bahia's form might have worsened.

Jequié has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jequié's recent form is better than expected.

Bahia - Jequié Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Joao Paulo (C) 89. Dell 83. Fred Lippert 68. Jota 57. Kaue Junior 43. Luiz Gustavo 44. Marcos Victor 58. Pedrinho 5. Rezende 77. Ruan Pablo 66. Ze Guilherme	1. Andre Lucas (G) 2. Carlos Santos 7. Cassio 6. Erick Daltro 8. Jo 10. Luiz Fernando 11. Nael 9. Recife T. 5. Walfrido 4. Weverton 3. William Mineiro
Substitutes
90. Caio Alexandre 63. David Martins 14. Erick 25. Iago Borduchi 4. Kanu 37. Kayky 71. Lyan Araujo 11. Rodrigo 82. Roger Gabriel 61. Victor 86. Vitor Hugo 67. Wendel Passos	14. Caique Baiano 21. Claudinei 13. Diego Bolt 18. Elivelton 12. Fabio (G) 16. Gabriel Carioca 20. Joao Grilo 25. Marcinho 17. Matos dos Santos Junior E. 15. Sergio Baiano 22. Ze Gatinha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Jota ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Recife T. ⚽,
36', 2 - 1, Ruan Pablo ⚽,
36', 🟨,
42', 3 - 1, Ruan Pablo ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Luiz Fernando ↓, Joao Grilo ↑,
46', Erick Daltro ↓, Caique Baiano ↑,
46', Carlos Santos ↓, Diego Bolt ↑,
64', 3 - 2, Nael ⚽,
65', Jota ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
65', Pedrinho ↓, David Martins ↑,
65', Rezende ↓, Erick ↑,
69', Recife T. ↓, Matos dos Santos Junior E. ↑,
74', Cassio ↓, Marcinho ↑,
74', Ze Guilherme ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
82', Marcos Victor ↓, Kanu ↑,
85', Jo 🟨,
90+3', 4 - 2, Lippert F. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4.

In recent matches, Bahia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In this match, Bahia is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:4. (average 3.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:3. (average 3.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.01%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
03.12.25	Bahia - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Juventude - Bahia	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
20.11.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWTWL
- AD Jequié
Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Sergipe - Jequié	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Jequié - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0 ✺
12.07.25	União Carmolandense - Jequié	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Juazeirense - Jequié	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Jequié - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
29.01.25	Jequié - Bahia	1:3
16.03.24	Bahia - Jequié	4:1
09.03.24	Jequié - Bahia	0:1
17.01.24	Bahia - Jequié	0:1
17.03.19	Jequié - Bahia	0:5
07.03.18	Bahia - Jequié	6:1

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