Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 17

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Bryntirion Park (Bridgend)

Referee: Markham-Jones B. (Wal)


	Pen-y-Bont		Bala Town

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.43	4.15	6.7
	1.43	4.35	7.36
	1.45	4.25	6.35	Watch
	1.44	4.05	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.56)	4.2 ↑ (3.68)	6.69 ↑ (5.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pen-y-Bont
64.2%

Draw
22%

Bala Town
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

25%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

22.3%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pen-y-Bont has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pen-y-Bont's performance.

Bala Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pen-y-Bont that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Pen y Bont - Bala Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pen-y-Bont will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Price J. (G) 21. Baker A. 16. Borge B. 10. Crole J. 11. Daley N. 6. Davies M. 4. Kircough G. 2. Ludvigsen K. 3. Owen K. 8. Pritchard O. 7. Wood N.	1. Torrance J. (G) 5. Bell W. 8. Burke N. 44. Dean H. 4. Digbeu N. 3. Hall L. 11. Higgins L. 17. Ibrahim O. 6. McGiveron D. 10. Owen J. 9. Tarasenko J.
Substitutes
15. Clay J. 18. Jones J. 30. Little M. 14. Phillips I. 9. Venables C. 17. Warlow O.	27. Billington S. 14. Lumeka L. 99. Mehasseb H. . Mendes 7. Mendes L. 16. Walls J.
Coaches
Griffiths R.	Fisher S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 1 - 0, Daley N. ⚽,
56', Digbeu N. 🟨,
66', 2 - 0, Crole J. ⚽,
66', Daley N. ↓, Phillips I. ↑,
67', McGiveron D. ↓, Billington S. ↑,
69', Bell W. 🟨,
70', Baker A. ↓, Venables C. ↑,
78', Hall L. ↓, Lumeka L. ↑,
78', Lumeka L. ↓, Mendes L. ↑,
84', Dean H. ↓, Walls J. ↑,
84', Owen K. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
84', Wood N. ↓, Clay J. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 1, Ibrahim O. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 2.

Recent performances by Pen-y-Bont have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bala Town's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pen-y-Bont may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Pen-y-Bont has had a series of away games.

In this match, Pen-y-Bont is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:45. (average 1.1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pen-y-Bont won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:20. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
08.11.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Pen-y-Bont	4:0 ✺
01.11.25	Flint Town United - Pen-y-Bont	3:4 ✺
25.10.25	Pen-y-Bont - Caernarfon Town	0:2 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:5 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.10.25	The New Saints - Pen-y-Bont	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLWL
- Bala Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.11.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
31.10.25	Bala Town - Llanelli	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Bala Town - Barry Town United	0:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
10.10.25	Haverfordwest County - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
06.09.25	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	0:0
19.04.25	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	3:2
08.03.25	Pen-y-Bont - Bala Town	3:2
26.10.24	Pen-y-Bont - Bala Town	1:1
31.08.24	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2
02.12.23	Pen-y-Bont - Bala Town	0:2
02.09.23	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	2:1

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