Match Info

FNL - Round 31

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Rostec Arena (Kaliningrad)

Referee: Tselovalnikov V. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match TV


	Baltika Kaliningrad		Torpedo Moscow

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.31	4.05
	1.96	3.1	4.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.07)	3.21 ↑ (3.18)	4.22 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baltika Kaliningrad
47.8%

Draw
29.7%

Torpedo Moscow
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

29.6%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

28.2%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baltika Kaliningrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Torpedo Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baltika Kaliningrad than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Baltika Kaliningrad - Torpedo Moscow Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
67. Borisko M. (G) 16. Andrade K. 2. Varatynov S. 4. Gassama N. 17. Saus V. 10. Petrov I. 8. Mendel A. (C) 96. Mokhammad A. 22. Titkov N. 19. Pryakhin S. 91. Gil Hurtado B.	74. Volkov M. (G) 19. Baytukov R. 4. Borodin S. (C) 3. Ivankov A. 99. Shevchenko G. 97. Curic M. 80. Khosonov K. 69. Manelov I. 10. Guzman Y. 27. Alykulov G. 7. Yushin A.
Substitutes
14. Appaev K. 6. Isaenko O. 11. Kovalev Y. 81. Kukushkin I. (G) 99. Lisakovich V. 44. Lyubakov E. (G) 18. Nikishin K. 5. Osipov A. 27. Ozdoev R. 73. Petrov M. 9. Stefanovich I. 13. Terentjev D.	8. Alesson 12. Baburin E. (G) 89. Chervyakov R. 84. Churilov V. 15. Danilkin E. 22. Galkin V. 17. Gorbunov I. 87. Kostin A. 9. Maksimov M. 52. Netfullin R. 90. Roganovic B. 11. Shamkin D.
Coaches
Talalaev A.	Kononov O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Khosonov K. 🟨,
15', Varatynov S. 🟨,
36', Petrov I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Khosonov K. ↓, Kostin A. ↑,
46', Titkov N. ↓, Petrov M. ↑,
57', 0 - 1, Guzman Y. ⚽,
63', Pryakhin S. ↓, Stefanovich I. ↑,
63', Mokhammad A. ↓, Kovalev Y. ↑,
71', Petrov I. ↓, Osipov A. ↑,
71', Gil Hurtado B. ↓, Lisakovich V. ↑,
73', Guzman Y. ↓, Roganovic B. ↑,
73', Yushin A. ↓, Maksimov M. ↑,
87', Manelov I. ↓, Gorbunov I. ↑,
87', Alykulov G. ↓, Alesson ↑,
90+1', Andrade K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Baltika is Qualified for Premier League

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Baltika won 2.

Baltika has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Torpedo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Baltika is the team to beat.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Baltika won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Baltika won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baltika Kaliningrad
Russian FNL
26.04.25	Ural - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:5 ✺
20.04.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Sokol Saratov	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Sochi	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:2 ✺
30.03.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTWWW
- Torpedo Moscow
Russian FNL
27.04.25	Alania Vladikavkaz - Torpedo Moscow	2:4 ✺
21.04.25	Torpedo Moscow - Ural	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Torpedo Moscow	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Torpedo Moscow - Rotor	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
16.10.24	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:4
Russian FNL
16.09.24	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:1
12.03.22	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:2
05.09.21	Baltika Kaliningrad - Torpedo Moscow	1:1
Club Friendly
28.06.21	Baltika Kaliningrad - Torpedo Moscow	2:0
30.01.21	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:0
Russian FNL
29.11.20	Baltika Kaliningrad - Torpedo Moscow	0:0

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