Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 13

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Barakaldo		Ferrol

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	2.8
	2.45	2.92	2.88
	2.57	3.01	2.81	Watch
	2.56	2.79	2.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.57)	2.96 ↓ (3.01)	2.82 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
37%

Draw
30.8%

Ferrol
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

30.8%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

31.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Ferrol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Barakaldo - Ferrol Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ispizua I. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 4. Dufur U. 18. Arana M. 14. Munoz I. 5. Molina E. 6. Naveira U. 7. Pedernales I. 21. San Bartolome V. 11. Perez E. 19. Galarza A.	1. Parera P. M. (G) 2. Miguel 15. Zalaya A. 3. Pujol E. 16. Garcia S. 14. Tejera S. 23. Pena A. 7. Alvaro J. 5. Noriega J. 10. Pascu 9. Escobar A.
Substitutes
13. Campos G. (G) 17. de Leon J. 3. Garcia B. 26. Huete H. 8. Huidobro J. 20. Mandiang S. 24. Ropero I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.	21. Carballo D. 11. Dacosta R. 25. Diaz L. (G) 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 6. Gelardo A. 20. Gimenez A. 8. Gorostidi A. 22. Mardones A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Dufur U. (Own goal),
32', Pena A. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Perez E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pena A. ↓, Gorostidi A. ↑,
58', de Jesus B. 🟨,
61', Noriega J. ↓, Gimenez A. ↑,
61', Escobar A. ↓, Gelardo A. ↑,
70', Alvaro J. ↓, Dacosta R. ↑,
74', Tejera S. ↓, Carballo D. ↑,
76', Galarza A. ↓, Mandiang S. ↑,
76', Munoz I. ↓, Valino A. ↑,
82', Molina E. ↓, Huidobro J. ↑,
85', Gimenez A. 🟨,
86', 2 - 1, San Bartolome V. ⚽,
90+3', Perez E. ↓, Torra M. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Barakaldo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barakaldo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Barakaldo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Barakaldo - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.12%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Ferrol - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.04%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.11.25	Osasuna B - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Barakaldo - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Lugo - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
24.10.25	Barakaldo - Tenerife	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LTTWT
- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
16.11.25	Ferrol - Zamora	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Arenteiro - Ferrol	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Ferrol - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Langreo - Ferrol	0:1 penalties ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.10.25	Celta de Vigo B - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
05.12.24	Barakaldo - Ferrol	1:2

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