Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 9

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	19:00	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Mérida AD		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.4
				Watch
	2.15	3.05	3.3
	2.13	3.15	3.6
	2.56	3.10	2.75	Watch
	2.16	3.13	3.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.56)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	3.28 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
41.9%

Draw
30%

Ponferradina
28.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.3%

30%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

30.7%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mérida AD's performance.

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponferradina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Mérida AD - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 15. Martinez G. 5. Dominguez J. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 18. Dibrani B. 8. Solar M. 21. Beneit R. 10. Doncel C. 9. Garcia A. 7. Chiqui	13. Jimenez A. (G) 21. Moreno D. 4. Moltenis B. 3. Novoa G. 2. Andujar D. (C) 19. Lopez A. 14. Fernandez X. 6. San Emeterio F. 5. Undabarrena E. 17. Keita A. 20. Ferrer P.
Substitutes
11. Areso J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 17. Herranz Corral V. 20. Jacobo R. 4. Pareja L. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.	25. Barredo P. (G) 9. Cortes J. 16. Frimpong E. 23. Jorrin M. 26. Kysil V. 11. Mula A. 1. Prieto A. (G) 7. Sergio Benito 15. Sousa V. 10. Valle B. 18. Vazquez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', 🟨,
35', 🟨,
36', 🟨,
39', 🟨,
39', 🟨,
43', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
87', 🟨,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Mérida AD will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Mérida AD - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 36.28%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.10.25	Mérida AD - Arenteiro	3:1 ✺
11.10.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Mérida AD - Arenas Club de Getxo	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Zamora - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Cacereño - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.10.25	Ponferradina - Zamora	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Talavera de la Reina - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:3 ✺
28.09.25	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
19.09.25	Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLTL

Mérida AD - Ponferradina