The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Talavera de la Reina 17.7%
Draw 32%
Ponferradina 50.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.7%
30%
34.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37%
28.9%
33.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Talavera de la Reina's form might have worsened.
Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ponferradina's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (+19.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Talavera de la Reina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-17.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ponferradina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez J. (G) 22. Rodriguez F. 5. Molina S. 4. Lopez A. 3. Roig A. 8. Sanchez L. 16. Navarro I. 6. Pitu 7. Di Renzo G. 9. Moreno M. 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E.
13. Jimenez A. (G) 4. Moltenis B. 3. Novoa G. 2. Andujar D. 19. Lopez A. 21. Moreno D. 14. Fernandez X. 5. Undabarrena E. 6. San Emeterio F. 17. Keita A. 9. Cortes J.
Substitutes
15. Arroyo N. 10. Ayllon I. 18. Capo P. 2. Cuenca D. 23. Farrando M. 19. Gomez V. 14. Molina A. 21. Montero Sergio 17. Ouacharaf B. 13. Rocafort R. (G) 32. Torres A. (G)
30. Baeza B. 25. Barredo P. (G) 22. Esquerdo V. 20. Ferrer P. 16. Frimpong E. 23. Jorrin M. 12. Lian 11. Mula A. 1. Prieto A. (G) 10. Valle B. 18. Vazquez B.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
37', 🟨,
38', Di Renzo G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 🟨,
52', Di Renzo G. 🟨,
58', Gallardo Rodriguez E. ↓, Molina A. ↑,
61', San Emeterio F. ↓, Valle B. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Fernandez X. ⚽,
71', Moreno D. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
71', Keita A. ↓, Jorrin M. ↑,
75', Navarro I. ↓, Capo P. ↑,
75', Rodriguez F. ↓, Ouacharaf B. ↑,
80', Roig A. ↓, Cuenca D. ↑,
80', Sanchez L. ↓, Montero Sergio ↑,
83', Cortes J. ↓, Frimpong E. ↑,
83', Fernandez X. ↓, Esquerdo V. ↑,
Preview
This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation).
Talavera has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ponferradina is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins โ 0).
Ponferradina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Talavera won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).
Including home match between the teams, Talavera won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
Last Results with these Odds
Ponferradina - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 34.34%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.
Spain
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Gonzalez J. (G) 
Di Renzo G. 
Moltenis B. 
Ouacharaf B. 
Frimpong E. 
Lian 
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