Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 8

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ponferradina		Zamora

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3.3
	2.12	3.05	3.4
	2.27	3.18	3.22
	2.87	2.73	2.78	Watch
	2.17	3.08	3.39
	2	3.1	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.99)	3.01 ↓ (3.14)	3.26 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
40.8%

Draw
30.8%

Zamora
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

29.2%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

28%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponferradina's form might have worsened.

Zamora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zamora than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Ponferradina - Zamora Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 5.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jimenez A. (G) 4. Moltenis B. 3. Novoa G. 2. Andujar D. (C) 19. Lopez A. 21. Moreno D. 5. Undabarrena E. 14. Fernandez X. 6. San Emeterio F. 17. Keita A. 9. Cortes J.	1. Sobron F. (G) 23. Lopez S. 4. Athuman I. 5. Ruiz E. 3. Merchan D. 8. Lucero R. 14. Claveria P. 7. Kike 16. Lozano M. 17. Carbonell J. 9. Eslava J.
Substitutes
25. Barredo P. (G) 22. Esquerdo V. 20. Ferrer P. 16. Frimpong E. 23. Jorrin M. 26. Kysil V. 12. Lian 11. Mula A. 1. Prieto A. (G) 15. Sousa V. 10. Valle B. 18. Vazquez B.	15. Buron L. 18. Farrell J. 6. Garcia M. 21. Lopez M. 2. Luengo Herrera L. M. 19. Monerris A. 13. Pereda A. (G) 10. Ramos C. 11. Romero Morillo A. 22. Sancho J. 27. Sy M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Lopez A. ⚽,
42', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lopez S. ↓, Buron L. ↑,
61', Claveria P. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
61', Kike ↓, Ramos C. ↑,
61', San Emeterio F. ↓, Valle B. ↑,
69', Buron L. 🟨,
73', Keita A. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
75', Eslava J. ↓, Farrell J. ↑,
79', Lopez A. ↓, Vazquez B. ↑,
79', Cortes J. ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
80', 🟨,
81', Lucero R. ↓, Romero Morillo A. ↑,
88', 2 - 0, Fernandez X. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Ponferradina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ponferradina could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ponferradina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.10.25	Talavera de la Reina - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:3 ✺
28.09.25	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
19.09.25	Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLTLL
- Zamora CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.10.25	Zamora - Real Avilés	2:3 ✺
04.10.25	Tenerife - Zamora	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Zamora - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Arenteiro - Zamora	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
17.09.25	Ourense CF - Zamora	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.25	Zamora - Ponferradina	1:2
03.11.24	Ponferradina - Zamora	2:2

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