Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 April 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Azerbaijan	23:00	CBC Sport
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, RTL Club
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	16:00	Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	15:00	ESPN Premium
Colombia	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport, Free, New World TV
Georgia	23:00	Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	00:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Shabake 3, Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	22:00	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Max
Japan	04:00	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	01:00	Qazsport
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	ART Sport 1
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, Sooka
Maldives	00:00	Medianet
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 8
Mexico	13:00	HBO Max, MAX, TNT Sports
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	07:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, SportsMax App Caribbean, SportsMax Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	05:00	TVWan Sports
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ 360, Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1
South Africa	21:00	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	21:00	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones
Suriname	16:00	ATV Suriname
Sweden	21:00	TV6, Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	00:00	Varzish Sport
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, Sport 24 At Sea, TUDN, Univision
Uzbekistan	00:00	Zor TV
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus, TV 360
International	19:00	Disney+


	Borussia Dortmund		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	3.4	4.1	1.95
	3.7	4.1	1.83
	3.35	4.15	2.02	Watch
	3.43	4.25	2.02
	3.41	4.2	2.01	Watch
	3.8	4	1.8
	3.69	4.18	1.92
	3.35	4.15	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (1.4)	4.14 ↓ (4.6)	1.95 ↓ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
27.4%

Draw
23.2%

Barcelona
49.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.5%

20.2%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

20.8%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-39.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Borussia Dortmund's form might have worsened.

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+36.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barcelona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+41.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Borussia Dortmund, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-36.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barcelona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	15%	60%

Borussia Dortmund - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: 78 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 20 - 25.6%). Barcelona will win (votes: 47 - 60.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 14.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 49.4% – 71.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 9 - 30%). Barcelona (votes: 19 - 63.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 5 - 71.4%) .

AH -1 - Borussia D (5.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Barcelona (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Barcelona (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 10 - 30.3%). Barcelona (votes: 21 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (C) 25. Sule N. 3. Anton W. 5. Bensebaini R. 2. Couto Y. 13. Gross P. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 9. Guirassy S. 14. Beier M.	25. Szczesny W. (G) 23. Kounde J. 2. Cubarsi P. 4. Araujo R. (C) 35. Martin G. 6. Gavi 21. de Jong F. 16. Lopez F. 19. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 11. Raphinha
Substitutes
10. Brandt J. 16. Duranville J. 43. Gittens J. 42. Kabar A. 35. Lotka M. (G) 39. Mane F. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 7. Reyna G. 26. Ryerson J. 38. Watjen K.	15. Christensen A. 10. Fati A. 32. Fort H. 24. Garcia E. 31. Kochen D. (G) 5. Martinez I. 20. Olmo D. 8. Pedri 13. Pena I. (G) 14. Torre P. 7. Torres F. 18. Victor P.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Flick H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Guirassy S. (Pen),
35', de Jong F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', 2 - 0, Guirassy S. ⚽, Bensebaini R. (A),
54', 2 - 1, Bensebaini R. (Own goal), Lopez F. (A),
56', Nmecha F. 🟨,
59', Gavi ↓, Pedri ↑,
64', Nmecha F. ↓, Reyna G. ↑,
64', Beier M. ↓, Duranville J. ↑,
70', Lopez F. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
70', Yamal L. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
76', 3 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽,
77', Adeyemi K. ↓, Gittens J. ↑,
77', Couto Y. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
86', Lewandowski R. ↓, Olmo D. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-4.

Recent matches Borussia D is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Barcelona is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Borussia D could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Borussia D have a series of guest games.

In this match Barcelona is a favorite.

There will not play in Borussia D: Campbell C. (Injury) Mane F. (Thigh Injury) Paulina J. (Thigh Injury) Sabitzer M. (Knee Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Hamstring Injury) Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Casado M. (Knee Injury) ter Stegen M. (Knee Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:10 (average 0.8:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Borussia D won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
12.04.25	Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.04.25	Barcelona - Borussia Dortmund	4:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.04.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:4 ✺
30.03.25	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TLWWL
- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
12.04.25	Leganés - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.04.25	Barcelona - Borussia Dortmund	4:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.04.25	Barcelona - Betis	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.04.25	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
30.03.25	Barcelona - Girona	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
09.04.25	Barcelona - Borussia Dortmund	4:0
11.12.24	Borussia Dortmund - Barcelona	2:3
27.11.19	Barcelona - Borussia Dortmund	3:1
17.09.19	Borussia Dortmund - Barcelona	0:0

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