Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport 1, New World Sport 4, New World Sport 5, New World Sport App, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Premier League, SuperSport PSL
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	16:00	ESPN
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Canal+
Azerbaijan	23:00	Ictimai TV
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	22:00	Ring, Voyo
Cameroon	20:00	CRTV Sports
Colombia	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Cote D Ivoire	19:00	NCI
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	21:00	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2, New World TV
Georgia	23:00	Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	22:00	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	21:00	Amazon Prime Video
Kosovo	21:00	RTK 1
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 8, TVM Sport+
Mexico	13:00	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	07:00	TVWan Sports 2
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ 360, TVP Sport
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport PSL
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
Sweden	21:00	TV6, Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2
Turkey	22:00	TRT 1
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	TNT Sports 2, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, Sport 24 Extra
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+
International	19:00	Disney+, VIX App


	Inter Milan		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.75	2.45
	2.65	3.4	2.55
	2.72	3.85	2.42	Watch
	2.74	3.95	2.47
	2.69	3.83	2.52	Watch
	2.62	3.5	2.5
	2.56	3.84	2.63
	2.68	3.8	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (1.62)	3.74 ↓ (4.1)	2.51 ↓ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Inter Milan
36%

Draw
25.7%

Bayern Munich
38.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.7%

22.8%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

21.5%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Inter Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Inter Milan's form might have worsened.

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bayern Munich's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (+25.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Inter Milan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-19.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bayern Munich, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	14.1%	55.1%

Inter Milan - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 77 users predict this event. Inter will win (votes: 24 - 31.2%). Bayern will win (votes: 42 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 43.4% – 65.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Inter (votes: 11 - 44%). Bayern (votes: 13 - 52%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

TQ, OT - Bayern (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Inter (2.02) (votes: 5 - 62.5%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Inter (1.98) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Inter (1.56) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Bayern (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 40 Selected Experts predict this event. Inter (votes: 19 - 47.5%). Bayern (votes: 20 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sommer Y. (G) 28. Pavard B. 15. Acerbi F. 95. Bastoni A. 36. Darmian M. 23. Barella N. 20. Calhanoglu H. 22. Mkhitaryan H. 32. Dimarco F. 10. Martinez L. (C) 9. Thuram M.	40. Urbig J. (G) 27. Laimer K. 15. Dier E. 3. Kim Min-Jae 44. Stanisic J. 6. Kimmich J. 8. Goretzka L. 17. Olise M. 25. Muller T. (C) 10. Sane L. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
8. Arnautovic M. 21. Asllani K. 52. Berenbruch T. 31. Bisseck Y. 30. Carlos Augusto 58. Cocchi M. 6. de Vrij S. 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 16. Frattesi D. 13. Martinez J. (G) 99. Taremi M. 59. Zalewski N.	23. Boey S. 11. Coman K. 7. Gnabry S. 22. Guerreiro R. 46. Karl L. 48. Klanac L. (G) 41. Kusi Asare J. 16. Palhinha J. 45. Pavlovic A. 18. Peretz D. (G) 24. Vidovic G.
Coaches
Inzaghi S.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Kim Min-Jae 🟨,
45+1', Dier E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
52', 0 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Goretzka L. (A),
58', 1 - 1, Martinez L. ⚽,
61', 2 - 1, Pavard B. ⚽, Calhanoglu H. (A),
65', Sane L. ↓, Gnabry S. ↑,
65', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Guerreiro R. ↑,
69', Arnautovic M. 🟨,
73', Dimarco F. ↓, Carlos Augusto ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Dier E. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
81', Martinez L. ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
83', Goretzka L. ↓, Pavlovic A. ↑,
83', Laimer K. ↓, Coman K. ↑,
88', Barella N. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
88', Bastoni A. ↓, Bisseck Y. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Inter won 2.

Inter is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Bayern is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bayern could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Inter: Carboni V. (Knee Injury) Correa J. (Inactive) Dumfries D. (Thigh Injury) Zielinski P. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Buchmann T. (Shoulder Injury) Davies A. (Knee Injury) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Musiala J. (Muscle Injury) Neuer M. (Calf Injury) Upamecano D. (Knee Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Inter won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5:10 (average 0.8:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Inter won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:6 (average 0.5:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Inter Milan - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.72%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
12.04.25	Inter Milan - Cagliari	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.04.25	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.04.25	Parma - Inter Milan	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
02.04.25	Milan - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
30.03.25	Inter Milan - Udinese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWTTW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
12.04.25	Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.04.25	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.25	Augsburg - Bayern Munich	1:3 ✺
29.03.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:2 ✺
15.03.25	Union Berlin - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.04.25	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	1:2
01.11.22	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	2:0
07.09.22	Inter Milan - Bayern Munich	0:2
International Champions Cup
27.07.17	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	0:2
30.07.16	Inter Milan - Bayern Munich	1:4
Club Friendly
21.07.15	Bayern Munich - Inter Milan	1:0

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