Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/64-finals

Date: 25 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Waldomiro Borges Stadium (Jequié)


	Barcelona de Ilhéus		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.25	1.91
	3.95	2.9	1.97
	4.47	3.15	1.95
	4.26	3.08	1.98
	3.8	3.2	1.95
	3.91	3.44	1.93
	3.95	2.9	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.1 ↓ (5.46)	3.13 ↓ (3.83)	1.95 ↑ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona de Ilhéus
22.7%

Draw
29.7%

Athletic Club
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.9%

24.1%

59%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.2%

23.2%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona de Ilhéus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Barcelona de Ilhéus's performance.

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Club might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Barcelona de Ilhéus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Club could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Barcelona de Ilhéus - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Simoes Viana W. (G) 10. Baje C. 3. Clebson 7. Denis Ribeiro 11. Gianlucas 6. Izaldo 14. John Lessa 2. Junior 5. Lidio (C) 8. Ramires 15. Vinicius Guimaraes M.	1. Diego Vitor (G) 20. Alason Carioca 8. Amorim 10. David Braga 5. Diego Fumaca 3. Edson Miranda 9. Lincoln 4. Sidimar 7. Welinton Torrao 52. Wesley Gasolina 6. Yuri (C)
Substitutes
25. Ale Santos 19. Jacare A. 4. Jaques 22. Jeferson Neves 21. Joao de Deus F. S. 16. Lucas Peres 9. Lucio Maranhao 13. Michel Tiago 20. Nadson 1. Pedro Antonio (G) 17. Silva R. 18. Willian Kaefer	22. Caua 13. Davi 2. Douglas Pele 15. Dourado L. 12. Eduardo Freire (G) 23. Gustavo Silva 11. Mateus Goncalves 19. Neto Costa 18. Wallisson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', Sidimar 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Edson Miranda ⚽,
44', 0 - 2, Welinton Torrao ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', 🟨,
71', 🟨,
73', Welinton Torrao ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
73', Alason Carioca ↓, Nathan ↑,
80', 🟥,
80', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
86', Neto Costa 🟨,
86', 1 - 2, Ale Santos ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Barcelona is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Athletic is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Barcelona could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Athletic is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
22.02.25	Porto SC - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Bahia	0:1 ✺
12.02.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jacuipense	1:1 ✺
04.02.25	Colo Colo de Ilhéus - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:2 ✺
28.01.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLTTW
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
21.02.25	Athletic Club - Democrata GV	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Democrata GV - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
12.02.25	Athletic Club - Betim	1:4 ✺
09.02.25	Uberlândia - Athletic Club	3:0 ✺
04.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WTLLL

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