Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 42

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	Basingstoke Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.37	4	2.2
	2.39	4.2	2.26
	2.44	4.43	2.29
	2.46	4.26	2.36	Watch
	2.39	4.1	2.24
	2.39	4.2	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (3.47)	4.2 ↑ (3.84)	2.27 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Basingstoke Town
38%

Draw
21.8%

Merthyr Town
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

23.8%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

23.1%

51.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Basingstoke Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Basingstoke Town's performance.

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Merthyr Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Basingstoke Town than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Basingstoke Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Basingstoke Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Merthyr (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Ferdinand L. ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, Reid G. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
71', 3 - 0, Reid G. ⚽,
77', 4 - 0, Ferdinand L. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Merthyr is Confirmed as championsnQualified for National League South

Last 5 head-to-head matches Basingstoke won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Basingstoke won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9:19 (average 1:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Basingstoke won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:8 (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Basingstoke Town
English Southern League South Division
21.04.25	Marlow - Basingstoke Town	1:4 ✺
18.04.25	Basingstoke Town - Totton	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Wimborne Town - Basingstoke Town	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Basingstoke Town - Gosport Borough	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Walton & Hersham - Basingstoke Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTLLT
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
21.04.25	Merthyr Town - Hungerford Town	3:0 ✺
18.04.25	Sholing - Merthyr Town	0:3 ✺
12.04.25	Merthyr Town - Poole Town	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Hanwell Town - Merthyr Town	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Winchester City - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
04.02.25	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:1
06.01.24	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	4:1
03.10.23	Basingstoke Town - Merthyr Town	1:3
19.01.19	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:0
17.11.18	Basingstoke Town - Merthyr Town	0:3
English Southern Premier League
19.12.17	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:1
12.09.17	Basingstoke Town - Merthyr Town	2:0

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