Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 18

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free


	Bastia		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.7	3.3	5.5
	1.7	3.4	5.5
	1.69	3.35	5.77	Watch
	1.7	3.3	5.5
	1.74	3.4	5.7	Watch
	1.7	3.4	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.64)	3.38 ↓ (3.53)	5.57 ↓ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
55.3%

Draw
27.8%

Ajaccio
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

26.6%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

25%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Ajaccio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bastia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	10%	3.3%

Bastia - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: Bastia will win (26 of 29 users predict this - 89.66%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Placide J. (G) 4. Roncaglia A. 24. Meynadier T. 6. Guidi D. 17. Ariss Z. 13. Ducrocq T. 66. Janneh J. 27. Tramoni L. 7. Vincent C. 9. Tomi F. 11. Cisse L.	16. Sollacaro F. (G) 12. Huard M. 31. Ayessa J. 88. Bamba A. 43. Kouassi A. 4. Barreto M. 21. Chegra I. 27. Kante A. 17. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 8. Puch-Herrantz M. 9. Ibayi C.
Substitutes
28. Akueson G. 33. Ble M. 15. Bohnert F. 14. Etoga L. 23. Fabri J. (G) 5. Maggiotti J. 25. Rodrigues C.	25. Anziani J. 26. Jabol-Folcarelli T. 10. Jacob V. 30. Quilichini G. (G) 99. Santelli B. 22. Soumano M. 23. Strata T.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Debes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
16', Ayessa J. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Ducrocq T. (Pen),
20', Ducrocq T. 🟨,
23', 2 - 0, Tomi F. ⚽, Tramoni L. (A),
37', Chegra I. 🟨,
40', 3 - 0, Cisse L. ⚽, Ducrocq T. (A),
42', Junior Pereira da Silva E. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kante A. ↓, Anziani J. ↑,
46', Puch-Herrantz M. ↓, Strata T. ↑,
60', Chegra I. ↓, Jacob V. ↑,
68', 4 - 0, Tramoni L. ⚽, Cisse L. (A),
70', Cisse L. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
70', Ibayi C. ↓, Soumano M. ↑,
71', Ducrocq T. ↓, Maggiotti J. ↑,
80', Tomi F. ↓, Rodrigues C. ↑,
80', Janneh J. ↓, Etoga L. ↑,
80', Ariss Z. ↓, Bohnert F. ↑,
89', Ble M. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bastia won 3.

Recent matches Bastia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ajaccio has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Bastia is a favorite.

There are questionable in Ajaccio: Campanini T. (Injury) Jabol-Folcarelli T. (Leg Injury) Mangani T. (Injury) Strata T. (Injury) Toure B. (Injury) Touzghar Y. (Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Bastia won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:13 (average 0.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Bastia won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:5 (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
03.01.25	Grenoble - Bastia	3:2 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.24	Bastia - Saint-Joseph	5:0 ✺
French Ligue 2
13.12.24	Bastia - Guingamp	3:1 ✺
06.12.24	Red Star - Bastia	0:0 ✺
03.12.24	Ajaccio - Bastia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWTT
- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 2
03.01.25	Ajaccio - Annecy	1:2 ✺
13.12.24	Pau - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
07.12.24	Ajaccio - Paris FC	0:2 ✺
03.12.24	Ajaccio - Bastia	0:0 ✺
25.11.24	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
03.12.24	Ajaccio - Bastia	0:0
05.02.24	Bastia - Ajaccio	1:0
02.10.23	Ajaccio - Bastia	2:0
12.03.22	Ajaccio - Bastia	0:1
25.09.21	Bastia - Ajaccio	2:0
Club Friendly
17.07.18	Ajaccio - Bastia	5:1
16.07.16	Bastia - Ajaccio	0:4

Bastia - Ajaccio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide