Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 12

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Francis Le Basser (Laval)

Referee: Landry R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect


	Laval		Le Mans

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.63	Watch
	2.72	3	2.58
	2.39	3.29	2.76	Watch
	2.76	3.04	2.62	Watch
	3	3.05	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.39)	3.08 ↓ (3.35)	2.64 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Laval
34.4%

Draw
30.3%

Le Mans
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

27.9%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

28.6%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Laval has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Laval than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Laval, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	20%	53.3%

Laval - Le Mans Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Laval will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Le Mans will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Mans: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Laval (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Samassa M. (G) 4. Ouaneh P. 23. Tavares Y. 3. Bianda W. 14. Mandouki C. 7. Vargas T. 9. Camara M. 6. Sanna S. (C) 21. Aradj Y. 28. Maggiotti J. 18. Tchokounte M.	98. Kocik N. (G) 21. Eyoum T. 17. Yohou S. 12. Ribelin A. 5. Voyer H. 8. Lauray A. 6. Quarshie E. (C) 27. Rossignol M. 22. Calodat L. 25. Gueye D. 9. Rabillard A.
Substitutes
20. Clavreul E. 1. Hautbois M. (G) 25. Montet E. 22. Mupemba N. 2. Pellenard T. 35. Samb L. 10. Sellouki M.	18. Buades L. 28. Colas E. 3. Cossier I. 20. Harhouz W. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 26. Oggad B. 24. Robin M.
Coaches
Frapolli O.	Videira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Lauray A. 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Rossignol M. ⚽,
45+3', Vargas T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Aradj Y. 🟨,
51', 🟨,
52', Tavares Y. ↓, Montet E. ↑,
60', Maggiotti J. ↓, Sellouki M. ↑,
60', Tchokounte M. ↓, Clavreul E. ↑,
62', Rabillard A. ↓, Harhouz W. ↑,
62', Gueye D. ↓, Colas E. ↑,
67', Calodat L. 🟨,
76', Rossignol M. ↓, Buades L. ↑,
77', Calodat L. ↓, Robin M. ↑,
79', Vargas T. ↓, Mupemba N. ↑,
79', Aradj Y. ↓, Samb L. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Samb L. ⚽,
87', Samb L. 🟨,
90', Quarshie E. ↓, Cossier I. ↑,
90+7', Colas E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Laval won 3.

Laval has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Le Mans is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Le Mans may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Laval: Adilehou M. (Inactive) Commaret M. (Injury) Montet E. (Inactive) Mupemba N. (Inactive) Thomas T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Le Mans: Abanda L. (Inactive) Cisse A. (Inactive) Delbecque A. (Inactive) Guillaume B. (Inactive) Luvambo T. (Injury) Ribelin A. (Inactive) Vercruysse J. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Laval won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Laval won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Laval
French Ligue 2
18.10.25	Laval - Red Star	0:1 ✺
03.10.25	Annecy - Laval	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Laval - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
23.09.25	Pau - Laval	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Laval - Amiens	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 2
24.10.25	Le Mans - Boulogne	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Saint-Étienne - Le Mans	2:3 ✺
03.10.25	Le Mans - Troyes	2:2 ✺
26.09.25	Clermont - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
23.09.25	Le Mans - Grenoble	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
27.02.22	Le Mans - Laval	2:0
Coupe De France
27.11.21	Laval - Le Mans	2:1 penalties
French Ligue 3
17.09.21	Laval - Le Mans	2:1
27.03.21	Laval - Le Mans	2:1
26.10.20	Le Mans - Laval	0:0
06.04.19	Laval - Le Mans	3:1
10.11.18	Le Mans - Laval	1:0

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