Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes)

Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free


	Troyes		Bastia

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.33	Watch
	1.78	3.45	4.35
	1.84	3.54	4.75
	1.93	3.19	4.19	Watch
	1.79	3.54	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.91)	3.44 ↑ (3.33)	4.41 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Troyes
51.4%

Draw
27.3%

Bastia
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

28%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

27.3%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.3%	6.5%	3.2%

Troyes - Bastia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Troyes (1.99) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Troyes (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Troyes will win (28 of 31 users predict this - 90.32%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.91% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Troyes will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Troyes (votes: 12 - 92.3%). Bastia (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Lemaitre N. (G) 44. Titi Y. 6. Monfray A. (C) 25. Gozzi P. 14. Boura I. 8. Diop M. 5. Adeline M. 10. Ifnaoui M. 17. Mille A. 15. Assoumou J. 21. Bentayeb T.	30. Placide J. (G) 24. Meynadier T. 6. Guidi D. 4. Roncaglia A. 3. Guevara J. 5. Ariss Z. 18. Zaouai A. 13. Ducrocq T. 7. Vincent C. (C) 10. Boutrah A. 19. Parravicini N.
Substitutes
11. Detourbet M. 9. El Idrissy M. 23. Gambor H. 40. Konate H. (G) 12. Odede E. 3. Ouzenadji A. 26. Phliponeau A.	25. Aiki A. 11. Ble M. 15. Bohnert F. 23. Fabri J. (G) 66. Janneh J. 33. Petrignani M. 9. Tomi F.
Coaches
Dumont S.	Tavenot B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Adeline M. 🟥,
28', Mille A. 🟨,
37', Lemaitre N. ↓, Konate H. ↑,
40', 1 - 0, Bentayeb T. ⚽, Ifnaoui M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Roncaglia A. ↓, Tomi F. ↑,
46', Parravicini N. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,
49', Ariss Z. 🟨,
49', Diop M. 🟨,
53', Guevara J. 🟨,
60', Titi Y. 🟨,
62', Boutrah A. ↓, Petrignani M. ↑,
77', Zaouai A. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
77', Vincent C. ↓, Janneh J. ↑,
79', Guidi D. 🟨,
79', Bentayeb T. ↓, El Idrissy M. ↑,
82', Monfray A. 🟨,
90+2', Mille A. ↓, Phliponeau A. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 2.

Troyes is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bastia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Troyes is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Troyes: Maronnier L. (Muscle Injury) Ripart R. (Knee Injury) Traore I. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Knee Injury) Bathily Y. (Injury) Etoga L. (Knock) Olmeta L. (International duty) Parravicini N. (Injury) Sebas J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Troyes: Phliponeau A. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Troyes will win today's game, with odds of 1.83.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Troyes won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troyes AC
French Ligue 2
03.10.25	Le Mans - Troyes	2:2 ✺
26.09.25	Troyes - Annecy	3:1 ✺
23.09.25	Red Star - Troyes	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Troyes - Guingamp	5:2 ✺
12.09.25	Troyes - Nancy	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWWWW
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
03.10.25	Bastia - Dunkerque	0:0 ✺
26.09.25	Grenoble - Bastia	0:0 ✺
23.09.25	Bastia - Rodez	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Boulogne - Bastia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
28.02.25	Troyes - Bastia	2:0
13.09.24	Bastia - Troyes	0:0
09.03.24	Troyes - Bastia	2:0
26.08.23	Bastia - Troyes	3:2
French Ligue 1
06.02.16	Bastia - Troyes	2:0
12.12.15	Troyes - Bastia	1:1
23.02.13	Troyes - Bastia	0:0

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