Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 10 December 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 6
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Sports MENA 8, Q Arena Asia
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 6, Pickx+ Sports 6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Brazil	17:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	ESPN 3
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 4
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport 3
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	14:00	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 4
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 5
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport Variety 3
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 4, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 3
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, TV 360


	Bayer Leverkusen		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.75	2.05
	3.35	3.8	2.1
	3.43	3.9	2.14
	3.34	3.84	2.13	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2.1
	3.19	3.86	2.18
	3.25	3.66	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.71)	3.76 ↑ (3.63)	2.12 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
29.2%

Draw
25.5%

Newcastle United
45.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.4%

26.5%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

27.2%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bayer Leverkusen's form might have worsened.

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	21.1%	47.4%

Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 16 - 29.6%). Newcastle will win (votes: 27 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 20.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 36.7% – 63.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Newcastle (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Bayer (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.77) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH 0 - Bayer (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Newcastle (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Newcastle (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 9 - 37.5%). Newcastle (votes: 11 - 45.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 30. Maza I. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 10. Tillman M. 14. Schick P. 19. Poku E.	32. Ramsdale A. (G) 21. Livramento V. 12. Thiaw M. 33. Burn D. 3. Hall L. 8. Tonali S. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 7. Joelinton 11. Barnes H. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
5. Bade L. 44. Belocian J. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 9. Echeverri C. 35. Kofane C. M. 36. Lomb N. (G) 16. Tape A. 23. Tella N.	20. Elanga A. 59. Harrison A. (G) 67. Miley L. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 41. Ramsey J. 5. Schar F. 31. Thompson M. (G) 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.
Coaches
Meijer R.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Bruno Guimaraes (Own goal), Andrich R. (A),
21', Thiaw M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
47', Poku E. 🟨,
50', Garcia A. 🟨,
51', 1 - 1, Gordon A. (Penalty Awarded),
60', Joelinton ↓, Miley L. ↑,
71', Poku E. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Miley L. ⚽, Gordon A. (A),
78', Barnes H. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
82', Ramsdale A. 🟨,
85', Tillman M. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Grimaldo A. ⚽, Maza I. (A),
90', Arthur ↓, Bade L. ↑,
90+3', Gordon A. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
90+3', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,

Preview

Bayer has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Newcastle is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Bayer has had a series of away games.

Newcastle might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Bayer: Fernandez E. (Knee Injury) Hofmann J. (Inactive) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (Inactive) Terrier M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Newcastle: Ashby H. (Inactive) Botman S. (Lower Back Injury) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Lascelles J. (Inactive) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Pope N. (Muscle Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Trippier K. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Lucas (Muscle Injury) Tape A. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Krafth E. (Knee Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 38.11%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Manchester City - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Wolfsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.2 LWLWW
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1 ✺
02.12.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Everton - Newcastle United	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
22.11.25	Newcastle United - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWLW

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