Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 10 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.75	2.05
	3.35	3.8	2.1
	3.43	3.9	2.14
	3.34	3.84	2.13	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2.1
	3.19	3.86	2.18
	3.25	3.66	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.71)	3.76 ↑ (3.63)	2.12 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
29.2%

Draw
25.5%

Newcastle United
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

26.5%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

27.2%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bayer Leverkusen's form might have worsened.

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	21.1%	47.4%

Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 16 - 29.6%). Newcastle will win (votes: 27 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 20.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 36.7% – 63.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Newcastle (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Bayer (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.77) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH 0 - Bayer (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Newcastle (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Newcastle (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 9 - 37.5%). Newcastle (votes: 11 - 45.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 30. Maza I. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 10. Tillman M. 14. Schick P. 19. Poku E.	32. Ramsdale A. (G) 21. Livramento V. 12. Thiaw M. 33. Burn D. 3. Hall L. 8. Tonali S. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 7. Joelinton 11. Barnes H. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
5. Bade L. 44. Belocian J. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 9. Echeverri C. 35. Kofane C. M. 36. Lomb N. (G) 16. Tape A. 23. Tella N.	20. Elanga A. 59. Harrison A. (G) 67. Miley L. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 41. Ramsey J. 5. Schar F. 31. Thompson M. (G) 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.
Coaches
Meijer R.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Bruno Guimaraes (Own goal), Andrich R. (A),
21', Thiaw M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
47', Poku E. 🟨,
50', Garcia A. 🟨,
51', 1 - 1, Gordon A. (Penalty Awarded),
60', Joelinton ↓, Miley L. ↑,
71', Poku E. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Miley L. ⚽, Gordon A. (A),
78', Barnes H. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
82', Ramsdale A. 🟨,
85', Tillman M. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Grimaldo A. ⚽, Maza I. (A),
90', Arthur ↓, Bade L. ↑,
90+3', Gordon A. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
90+3', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,

Preview

Bayer has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Newcastle is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Bayer has had a series of away games.

Newcastle might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Bayer: Fernandez E. (Knee Injury) Hofmann J. (Inactive) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (Inactive) Terrier M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Newcastle: Ashby H. (Inactive) Botman S. (Lower Back Injury) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Lascelles J. (Inactive) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Pope N. (Muscle Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Trippier K. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Lucas (Muscle Injury) Tape A. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Krafth E. (Knee Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 38.11%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Manchester City - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Wolfsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.2 LWLWW
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1 ✺
02.12.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Everton - Newcastle United	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
22.11.25	Newcastle United - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTWLW

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