Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 12

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.55	Watch
	2.68	3.55	2.52	Watch
	2.77	3.6	2.58
	2.54	3.69	2.59	Watch
				Watch
	2.74	3.65	2.66	Watch
	2.66	3.5	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.54)	3.58 ↓ (3.69)	2.58 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
35.9%

Draw
26.8%

Borussia Dortmund
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

25.8%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

26.1%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	35.3%	29.4%

Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 12 - 35.3%). Borussia D will win (votes: 10 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 19.2% – 51.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Borussia D (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Bayer (1.54) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Borussia D (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.07) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Borussia D (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 8. Andrich R. (C) 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. 7. Hofmann J. 30. Maza I. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 10. Tillman M. 19. Poku E. 14. Schick P.	1. Kobel G. (G) 28. Anselmino A. 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. (C) 26. Ryerson J. 20. Sabitzer M. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 10. Brandt J. 27. Adeyemi K. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
44. Belocian J. 17. Ben Seghir E. 9. Echeverri C. 35. Kofane C. M. 36. Lomb N. (G) 4. Quansah J. 18. Sarco A. 23. Tella N. 11. Terrier M.	7. Bellingham J. 5. Bensebaini R. 23. Can E. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 16. Duranville J. 13. Gross P. 33. Meyer A. (G) 21. Silva F.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
30', Tillman M. 🟨,
40', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Anselmino A. ⚽, Svensson D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Ryerson J. 🟨,
61', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
63', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Silva F. (A),
74', Tillman M. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
74', Hofmann J. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
80', Ryerson J. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
80', Adeyemi K. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
82', Silva F. 🟨,
83', 1 - 2, Kofane C. M. ⚽, Maza I. (A),
88', Couto Y. 🟨,
88', Andrich R. ↓, Quansah J. ↑,
88', Poku E. ↓, Tella N. ↑,
90+1', Nmecha F. ↓, Bensebaini R. ↑,
90+1', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
90+4', Garcia A. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 1.

Bayer is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Borussia D has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Bayer has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Bayer: Arthur (Back Injury) Blaswich J. (Inactive) Fernandez E. (Knee Injury) Lucas (Muscle Injury) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Tape A. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Beier M. (Muscle Injury) Sule N. (Toe Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 31:50. (average 1.6:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 1.7:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Manchester City - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Wolfsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
08.11.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Heidenheim	6:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 35.2 WWWWL
- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	4:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Borussia Dortmund - Stuttgart	3:3 ✺
08.11.25	Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Manchester City - Borussia Dortmund	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.10.25	Augsburg - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
11.05.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	2:4
10.01.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
21.04.24	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
03.12.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
29.01.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
06.08.22	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0
06.02.22	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	2:5

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