Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		PSV Eindhoven

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.9	3.7
	1.95	3.85	3.75
	1.98	3.9	3.87
	4.78	1.40	7.16	Watch
	1.94	3.97	3.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (1.87)	3.4 ↓ (4.13)	4.45 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
43.4%

Draw
32.1%

PSV Eindhoven
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

23.2%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

22.7%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bayer Leverkusen's form might have worsened.

PSV Eindhoven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.1%	16.4%	11.5%

Bayer Leverkusen - PSV Eindhoven Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 44 - 73.3%). PSV will win (votes: 6 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 62.1% – 84.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 22 - 73.3%). PSV (votes: 1 - 3.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 23.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - PSV (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Bayer (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Bayer (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 24 - 72.7%). PSV (votes: 2 - 6.1%). Tie (votes: 7 - 21.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. 16. Tape A. 24. Garcia A. 6. Fernandez E. 20. Grimaldo A. (C) 10. Tillman M. 19. Poku E. 35. Kofane C. M.	32. Kovar M. (G) 17. Mauro Junior 4. Obispo A. 3. Gasiorowski Y. 2. Salah-Eddine A. 34. Saibari I. 22. Schouten J. (C) 23. Veerman J. 27. Man D. 20. Til G. 5. Perisic I.
Substitutes
13. Arthur 44. Belocian J. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 9. Echeverri C. 38. Izekor K. 36. Lomb N. (G) 30. Maza I.	19. Bajraktarevic E. 11. Driouech C. 31. Fernandez N. 6. Flamingo R. 39. Nagalo A. 1. Olij N. (G) 24. Schiks N. (G) 40. van Duiven R. 10. Wanner P.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Bosz P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Tape A. ↓, Arthur ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', Til G. 🟨,
65', 1 - 0, Kofane C. M. ⚽,
66', Obispo A. ↓, Flamingo R. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Saibari I. ⚽, Til G. (A),
73', Man D. ↓, Bajraktarevic E. ↑,
73', Perisic I. ↓, Driouech C. ↑,
73', Poku E. ↓, Ben Seghir E. ↑,
80', Kofane C. M. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
80', Tillman M. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
90+2', Saibari I. 🟨,

Preview

Bayer is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

PSV has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bayer is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Hofmann J. (Inactive) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Schick P. (Muscle Injury) Tella N. (Knee Injury) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in PSV: Boadu M. (Muscle Injury) Dest S. (Health problems) Kuhn W. (Knee Injury) Pepi R. (Muscle Injury) Plea A. (Knee Injury) Sildillia K. (Muscle Injury) Waayers E. (Calf Injury) van Bommel R. (Knee Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Copenhagen - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTTWT
- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Saint-Gilloise	1:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
13.09.25	NEC Nijmegen - PSV Eindhoven	3:5 ✺
30.08.25	PSV Eindhoven - Telstar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WTLWL

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