Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	ZAP
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 3
Angola	14:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	23:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Canada	09:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	21:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	15:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 3, Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	K-Vision
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	15:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	07:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 1
Romania	16:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 5
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Sport TV2, Voyo
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.6	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.55	2.18	Watch
	3.32	3.62	2.25
	2.72	3.40	2.49	Watch
	3.47	3.61	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↓ (3.32)	3.56 ↓ (3.75)	2.26 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
30.2%

Draw
27.1%

Bayer Leverkusen
42.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.8%

25.5%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

26.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.1%	11.4%	71.4%

St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 6 - 17.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 25 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 56.4% – 86.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - St. Pauli (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Bayer (votes: 9 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 2. Saliakas M. 6. Sands J. 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 10. Sinani D. 27. Hountondji A. 28. Pereira Lage M.	1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. 16. Tape A. 24. Garcia A. 8. Andrich R. (C) 20. Grimaldo A. 10. Tillman M. 17. Ben Seghir E. 14. Schick P.
Substitutes
17. Afolayan O. 20. Ahlstrand E. 9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	44. Belocian J. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 9. Echeverri C. 6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. M. 21. Lucas 30. Maza I. 19. Poku E.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', Quansah J. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Tapsoba E. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Wahl H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Andrich R. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
50', Fujita J. 🟨,
56', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
56', Tape A. ↓, Lucas ↑,
58', 1 - 2, Poku E. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
60', Lucas 🟨,
68', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
68', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
75', Tillman M. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
80', Fujita J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
81', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
86', Hjulmand K. 🟨,
87', Saliakas M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
87', Smith E. 🟨,
89', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
90+2', Bade L. 🟨,
90+2', Fernandez E. 🟨,
90+8', Ceesay A. 🟨,
90+9', Kofane C. M. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bayer could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Muscle Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Mets K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Tella N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
19.09.25	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	St. Pauli - Augsburg	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWTWT
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
21.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Copenhagen - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
23.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
20.04.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
07.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	2:1
Club Friendly
04.09.14	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	2:2

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