Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3, Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.6	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.55	2.18	Watch
	3.32	3.62	2.25
	2.72	3.40	2.49	Watch
	3.47	3.61	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↓ (3.32)	3.56 ↓ (3.75)	2.26 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
30.2%

Draw
27.1%

Bayer Leverkusen
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

25.5%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

26.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.1%	11.4%	71.4%

St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 6 - 17.1%). Bayer will win (votes: 25 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 56.4% – 86.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - St. Pauli (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Bayer (votes: 9 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 2. Saliakas M. 6. Sands J. 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 10. Sinani D. 27. Hountondji A. 28. Pereira Lage M.	1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. 16. Tape A. 24. Garcia A. 8. Andrich R. (C) 20. Grimaldo A. 10. Tillman M. 17. Ben Seghir E. 14. Schick P.
Substitutes
17. Afolayan O. 20. Ahlstrand E. 9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	44. Belocian J. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 9. Echeverri C. 6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. M. 21. Lucas 30. Maza I. 19. Poku E.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', Quansah J. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Tapsoba E. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Wahl H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Andrich R. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
50', Fujita J. 🟨,
56', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
56', Tape A. ↓, Lucas ↑,
58', 1 - 2, Poku E. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
60', Lucas 🟨,
68', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
68', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
75', Tillman M. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
80', Fujita J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
81', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
86', Hjulmand K. 🟨,
87', Saliakas M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
87', Smith E. 🟨,
89', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
90+2', Bade L. 🟨,
90+2', Fernandez E. 🟨,
90+8', Ceesay A. 🟨,
90+9', Kofane C. M. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bayer could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Muscle Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Mets K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Tella N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
19.09.25	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	St. Pauli - Augsburg	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWTWT
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
21.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Copenhagen - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
23.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
20.04.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1
07.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	2:1
Club Friendly
04.09.14	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	2:2

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