Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belgium	21:00	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	16:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	Disney+
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1, New World TV
Georgia	23:00	Silk Universal
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	22:00	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 2
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	13:00	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Mongolia	03:00	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport LaLiga
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ 360
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sport 1, beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 3
South America	—	Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 5
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	02:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 5
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus


	Bayer Leverkusen		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.9	1.67
	4.75	4.1	1.72
	5.13	4.2	1.69
	100.00	17.96	1.00	Watch
	5.23	4.04	1.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	23.97 ↑ (4.97)	6.84 ↑ (4.19)	1.55 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
5%

Draw
17.6%

Paris Saint-Germain
77.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.3%

22.9%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.5%

21.9%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bayer Leverkusen's form might have worsened.

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paris Saint-Germain's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris Saint-Germain, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	10.6%	84%

Bayer Leverkusen - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Bayer (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - PSG (2.08) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (79 of 92 users predict this - 85.87%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.75% – 92.99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (33 of 42 users predict this - 78.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 45 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 3 - 6.7%). PSG (votes: 35 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 7 - 15.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 8. Andrich R. (C) 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 9. Echeverri C. 19. Poku E. 35. Kofane C. M.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 2. Hakimi A. (C) 6. Zabarnyi I. 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 14. Doue D. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 24. Mayulu S. 29. Barcola B.
Substitutes
44. Belocian J. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 42. Culbreath M. 38. Izekor K. 36. Lomb N. (G) 30. Maza I. 27. Mensah J.	4. Beraldo L. 10. Dembele O. 21. Hernandez L. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 5. Marquinhos 49. Mbaye I. 47. Ndjantou Q. 9. Ramos G. 39. Safonov M. (G)
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
7', 0 - 1, Pacho W. ⚽, Mendes N. (A),
24', Zabarnyi I. 🟨,
25', Grimaldo A. (Pen),
31', Andrich R. 🟥,
37', Zabarnyi I. 🟥,
38', 1 - 1, Garcia A. (Pen),
41', 1 - 2, Doue D. ⚽, Kvaratskhelia K. (A),
43', Echeverri C. 🟨,
44', 1 - 3, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽,
45+1', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 4, Doue D. ⚽, Hakimi A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Echeverri C. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
46', Doue D. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
50', 1 - 5, Mendes N. ⚽, Vitinha (A),
52', Kofane C. M. ↓, Belocian J. ↑,
54', 2 - 5, Garcia A. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
63', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Dembele O. ↑,
63', Mayulu S. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
63', Poku E. ↓, Ben Seghir E. ↑,
66', 2 - 6, Dembele O. ⚽, Barcola B. (A),
72', Barcola B. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
76', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Ndjantou Q. ↑,
81', Fernandez E. ↓, Mensah J. ↑,
90', 2 - 7, Vitinha ⚽,

Preview

Bayer is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, PSG has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, PSG is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Hofmann J. (Inactive) Lucas (Muscle Injury) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Tape A. (Hamstring Injury) Tella N. (Knee Injury) Terrier M. (Inactive) Tillman M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Neves J. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz F. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Quansah J. (Muscle Injury) Schick P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Bayer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
04.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWTWT
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
17.10.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Strasbourg	3:3 ✺
05.10.25	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
27.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
12.03.14	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayer Leverkusen	2:1
18.02.14	Bayer Leverkusen - Paris Saint-Germain	0:4

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