Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	HBO Max
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1, New World TV
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Amazon Prime Video
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Mongolia	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3
Poland	CANAL+ 360
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-america	Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 5
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 5
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Bayer Leverkusen		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.9	1.67
	4.75	4.1	1.72
	5.13	4.2	1.69
	100.00	17.96	1.00	Watch
	5.23	4.04	1.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	23.97 ↑ (4.97)	6.84 ↑ (4.19)	1.55 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
5%

Draw
17.6%

Paris Saint-Germain
77.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

22.9%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.5%

21.9%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bayer Leverkusen's form might have worsened.

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paris Saint-Germain's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris Saint-Germain, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	10.6%	84%

Bayer Leverkusen - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Bayer (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - PSG (2.08) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (79 of 92 users predict this - 85.87%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.75% – 92.99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (33 of 42 users predict this - 78.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 45 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 3 - 6.7%). PSG (votes: 35 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 7 - 15.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 8. Andrich R. (C) 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. 13. Arthur 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 9. Echeverri C. 19. Poku E. 35. Kofane C. M.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 2. Hakimi A. (C) 6. Zabarnyi I. 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 14. Doue D. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 24. Mayulu S. 29. Barcola B.
Substitutes
44. Belocian J. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 42. Culbreath M. 38. Izekor K. 36. Lomb N. (G) 30. Maza I. 27. Mensah J.	4. Beraldo L. 10. Dembele O. 21. Hernandez L. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 5. Marquinhos 49. Mbaye I. 47. Ndjantou Q. 9. Ramos G. 39. Safonov M. (G)
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
7', 0 - 1, Pacho W. ⚽, Mendes N. (A),
24', Zabarnyi I. 🟨,
25', Grimaldo A. (Pen),
31', Andrich R. 🟥,
37', Zabarnyi I. 🟥,
38', 1 - 1, Garcia A. (Pen),
41', 1 - 2, Doue D. ⚽, Kvaratskhelia K. (A),
43', Echeverri C. 🟨,
44', 1 - 3, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽,
45+1', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 4, Doue D. ⚽, Hakimi A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Echeverri C. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
46', Doue D. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
50', 1 - 5, Mendes N. ⚽, Vitinha (A),
52', Kofane C. M. ↓, Belocian J. ↑,
54', 2 - 5, Garcia A. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
63', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Dembele O. ↑,
63', Mayulu S. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
63', Poku E. ↓, Ben Seghir E. ↑,
66', 2 - 6, Dembele O. ⚽, Barcola B. (A),
72', Barcola B. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
76', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Ndjantou Q. ↑,
81', Fernandez E. ↓, Mensah J. ↑,
90', 2 - 7, Vitinha ⚽,

Preview

Bayer is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, PSG has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, PSG is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Hofmann J. (Inactive) Lucas (Muscle Injury) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Tape A. (Hamstring Injury) Tella N. (Knee Injury) Terrier M. (Inactive) Tillman M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Neves J. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz F. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Quansah J. (Muscle Injury) Schick P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Bayer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
04.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWTWT
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
17.10.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Strasbourg	3:3 ✺
05.10.25	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
27.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
12.03.14	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayer Leverkusen	2:1
18.02.14	Bayer Leverkusen - Paris Saint-Germain	0:4

Upcoming Matches