Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	Paramount+, Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Bangladesh	Toffee Live
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	HBO Max, TNT
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, HRT 2, HRTi, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, WOW
Greece	MEGA
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3, Sony Sports TEN 4
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player, Shabake 3
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Calcio, TV8
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, RTK 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports, TV3
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	HBO Max
Moldova	Jurnal TV
Mongolia	Premier Sports 2
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1, sport.tvp.pl, TVP 1, TVP Sport app
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Prime, Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Kanal A, Nova Sport 3, Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, M+ Liga de Campeones 4, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	VTVcab


	Bayern Munich		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.3
	2.05	3.70	3.40
	2.08	3.85	3.35
	2.11	3.99	3.4
	2.09	3.99	3.32	Watch
	2.06	3.95	3.2
	2.11	4.04	3.39
	2.03	3.9	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.42)	3.9 ↑ (3.73)	3.34 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayern Munich
46.5%

Draw
24.7%

Arsenal
28.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.8%

25.2%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

25.7%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bayern Munich's performance.

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bayern Munich that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Bayern Munich - Arsenal Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 26 - 86.7%). Arsenal will win (votes: 2 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 74.5% – 98.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 1.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Bayern could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bayern is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Bayern: Buchmann T. (Knee Injury) Musiala J. (Muscle Injury) Olise M. (Red Card).

Confirmed absences for Arsenal: Hincapie P. (Ankle Injury) Saliba W. (Back Injury) Tzolis C. (Hamstring Injury).

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Bayern has recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:18 (averaging 2.1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bayern against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 13:7 goals (averaging 2.2:1.2 per game).

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4:0	4	6
12	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	8:3	5	4

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Arsenal: 11.8% Bayern Munich: 10.33%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
17.10.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	6:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.10.26	Viking Stavanger - Bayern Munich	3:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
10.10.26	Augsburg - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
18.09.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	7:0 ✺
13.09.26	Elversberg - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WTTWW
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
18.10.26	Nottingham Forest - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.10.26	Arsenal - Lille	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
10.10.26	Arsenal - Leeds United	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
15.09.26	Ipswich Town - Arsenal	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	3:1
17.04.24	Bayern Munich - Arsenal	1:0
09.04.24	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	2:2
International Champions Cup
17.07.19	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	2:1
19.07.17	Bayern Munich - Arsenal	1:2 penalties
UEFA Champions League
07.03.17	Arsenal - Bayern Munich	1:5
15.02.17	Bayern Munich - Arsenal	5:1

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