Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Amex Stadium (Brighton)

Referee: England D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brighton & Hove Albion		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.9	1.7
	4.80	3.80	1.70
	5.1	3.75	1.7
	5	3.91	1.72
	4.68	3.96	1.77	Watch
	4.95	3.85	1.7
	4.93	4.11	1.76	Watch
	4.8	4	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↑ (4.38)	3.91 ↑ (3.76)	1.71 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brighton & Hove Albion
19.6%

Draw
24.5%

Arsenal
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

25.3%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

25.5%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brighton & Hove Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.7%	5.6%	90.7%

Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Brighton & Hove (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Arsenal (1.17) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Arsenal (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.73) (votes: 91%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - Arsenal & Yes (3.40) (votes: 79%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (48 of 53 users predict this - 90.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.7% – 98.44%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Arsenal (votes: 9 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Verbruggen B. (G) 24. Kadioglu F. 44. Vuskovic L. 4. Struijk P. 21. Boscagli O. 14. Andres C. 13. Gross P. (C) 25. Gomez D. 26. Ayari Y. 29. De Cuyper M. 19. Kostoulas C.	1. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 15. Konsa E. 6. Gabriel 33. Calafiori R. 41. Rice D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes 7. Saka B. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 17. Tzolis C. 29. Havertz K.
Substitutes
20. Costinha 12. David P. 3. Hadjam J. 33. O'Riley M. 15. Osman I. 10. Rutter G. 23. Steele J. (G) 30. Svoboda M. 35. Yalcouye M.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 56. Dowman M. 10. Eze E. 14. Gyokeres V. 5. Hincapie P. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 20. Madueke N. 23. Merino M. 36. Zubimendi M.
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Gross P. ⚽, Kostoulas C. (A),
33', Kostoulas C. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Kostoulas C. ⚽, Gomez D. (A),
45+2', Kadioglu F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 3 - 0, Andres C. ⚽, Gross P. (A),
61', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Merino M. ↑,
61', Timber J. ↓, Zubimendi M. ↑,
71', Struijk P. 🟨,
73', Odegaard M. ↓, Gyokeres V. ↑,
73', Tzolis C. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
77', Kostoulas C. ↓, Rutter G. ↑,
77', Kadioglu F. ↓, Costinha ↑,
81', Saka B. ↓, Dowman M. ↑,
86', Andres C. ↓, Yalcouye M. ↑,
86', Struijk P. ↓, Svoboda M. ↑,
86', Gomez D. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
90+1', De Cuyper M. 🟨,
90+7', Rice D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 0.

Brighton & Hove has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Arsenal is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Brighton & Hove may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Arsenal has had a run of games away from home.

Arsenal carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Brighton & Hove: Azeez F. (Abdominal strain) Ferguson E. (Ankle Injury) Hinshelwood J. (Injury) Minteh Y. (Injury) Mitoma K. (Hamstring Injury) Svoboda M. (Injury) Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Wieffer M. (Knee Injury) Yohanna Z. (Lacking Match Fitness).

Confirmed absences for Arsenal: Saliba W. (Back Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Brighton & Hove: Hadjam J. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Arsenal: Mosquera C. (Muscle Injury) White B. (Groin Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Brighton & Hove has recorded 6 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:28 (averaging 1.1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Brighton & Hove against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:13 goals (averaging 0.9:1.4 per game).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Arsenal: 58.36% Brighton: 2.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8:4	4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16:5	11	10

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.97%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brighton & Hove Albion
English League Cup
16.09.26	Manchester United - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:3 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.26	Coventry City - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	4:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Tromsø	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTLW
- Arsenal FC
English League Cup
15.09.26	Ipswich Town - Arsenal	2:4 ✺
English Premier League
12.09.26	Sunderland - Arsenal	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Napoli - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
06.09.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
04.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal	0:1
27.12.25	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1
English League Cup
29.10.25	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:0
English Premier League
04.01.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal	1:1
31.08.24	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:1
06.04.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal	0:3
17.12.23	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:0

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