What is the expert prediction for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?

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Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, April 04, 2026)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 28

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 4, New World Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Brazil	Canal GOAT, SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Freiburg		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.75	1.53	Watch
	5.4	4.7	1.55	Watch
	5.58	4.9	1.54
	5.55	4.98	1.54	Watch
	5	4.4	1.5
	5.65	4.85	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.41 ↓ (6.42)	4.76 ↓ (5.45)	1.53 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
17.7%

Draw
20%

Bayern Munich
62.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.8%

17.4%

67.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.3%

16.8%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayern Munich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayern Munich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.2%	24.1%	58.6%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Bayern will win (votes: 16 - 59.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 40.8% – 77.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Bayern (2.11) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1.25 - Freiburg (1.94) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

EH +1 - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.5 - Freiburg (5.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1.75 - Bayern (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Freiburg (2.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Bayern (votes: 9 - 69.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 30. Gunter C. (C) 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 7. Scherhant D. 9. Holer L.	1. Neuer M. (C) 44. Stanisic J. 3. Kim Min-Jae 4. Tah J. 20. Bischof T. 6. Kimmich J. 8. Goretzka L. 42. Karl L. 22. Guerreiro R. 14. Diaz L. 7. Gnabry S.
Substitutes
32. Grifo V. 27. Hofler N. 22. Irie C. 5. Jung A. 17. Kubler L. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 43. Ogbus B. 26. Philipp M.	49. Cardozo M. 19. Davies A. 21. Ito H. 27. Laimer K. 10. Musiala J. 17. Olise M. 45. Pavlovic A. 2. Upamecano D. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Schuster J.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Tah J. 🟨,
29', Ginter M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', 1 - 0, Manzambi J. ⚽, Eggestein M. (A),
56', Guerreiro R. ↓, Olise M. ↑,
56', Tah J. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
56', Goretzka L. ↓, Pavlovic A. ↑,
65', Gunter C. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
65', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Holer L. ⚽,
73', Olise M. 🟨,
78', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
78', Manzambi J. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Bischof T. ⚽, Karl L. (A),
87', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Davies A. ↑,
89', Holer L. ↓, Ogbus B. ↑,
90', Suzuki Y. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Bischof T. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
90+9', 2 - 3, Karl L. ⚽, Davies A. (A),
90+9', Atubolu N. 🟨,
90+10', Karl L. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 0.

Freiburg has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bayern is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Bayern is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Freiburg: Rosenfelder M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Jackson N. (Red Card) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ulreich S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Bayern: Kane H. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 18:55. (average 0.9:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:21. (average 1:2.3).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich ✔	31	26	4	1	113:32	81	82
8	Freiburg	31	12	7	12	44:52	-8	43

Last Results with these Odds

Bayern Munich - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 67.8%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Genk - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.03.26	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLLT
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
21.03.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Bayern Munich - Atalanta	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.03.26	Atalanta - Bayern Munich	1:6 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.03.26	Bayern Munich - Borussia Mönchengladbach	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Bayern Munich - Freiburg	6:2
25.01.25	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	1:2
01.09.24	Bayern Munich - Freiburg	2:0
01.03.24	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:2
08.10.23	Bayern Munich - Freiburg	3:0
08.04.23	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	0:1
German DFB Pokal
04.04.23	Bayern Munich - Freiburg	1:2

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