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Freiburg - Bayern Munich

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 7
  • Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)
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    Freiburg Bayern Munich
    Freiburg Bayern Munich
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 5.79 ↓
    (6.3)    		 5.28 ↓
    (5.5)    		 1.47 ↑
    (1.4)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Freiburg
    16.6%    		Draw
    18.2%    		Bayern Munich
    65.2%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    15% 17.2% 67.7%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    14.4% 17.3% 68.3%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    18.5% 7.4% 74.1%

    Freiburg - Bayern Munich Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Bayern will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 57.6% โ€“ 90.6%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +1.75 - Freiburg (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 4 - under (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.25 - Bayern (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • New Consensus by Tipsters:
    • BTTS - Bayern Munich & Yes (2.25) (votes: 100%) โญ Best Value.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 1 - 25%). Bayern (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. GermanyBackhaus M. (G)
    29. GermanyTreu P.
    28. GermanyGinter M.
      3. AustriaLienhart P.
    33. DRMakengo J.
      8. GermanyEggestein M. (C)
      6. GermanyOsterhage P.
    19. GermanyBeste J.
    14. JapanSuzuki Y.
      7. GermanyScherhant D.
      9. GermanyHoler L.
    		40. GermanyUrbig J. (G)
    44. CroatiaStanisic J.
      2. FranceUpamecano D.
      4. GermanyTah J.
    11. GermanyBrown N.
    27. AustriaLaimer K.
      8. GermanyBischof T.
    17. FranceOlise M.
    42. GermanyKarl L.
      7. GermanyGnabry S.
      9. EnglandKane H. (C)
    Substitutes
    42. JapanGoto K.
    32. ItalyGrifo V.
    30. GermanyGunter C.
    22. BurkinaIrie C.
    17. GermanyKubler L.
    31. CroatiaMatanovic I.
    21. GermanyMuller F. (G)
    37. GermanyRosenfelder M.
    20. JapanYamamoto R.
    		35. GermanyBartl J. (G)
    46. GermanyBinder T.
    23. FranceBoey S.
    47. PortugalDaiber D.
    19. CanadaDavies A.
    21. JapanIto H.
    30. GermanyKiala C.
    34. MoroccoSaibari I.
    26. GermanyUlreich S. (G)
    Coaches
         GermanySchuster J.
    		     EnglandDanks A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 2)
    • 16', 0 - 1, Upamecano D. ⚽, Olise M. (A),
    • 25', Holer L. 🟨,
    • 42', 0 - 2, Gnabry S. ⚽, Brown N. (A),
    • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
    • 55', Beste J. 🟨,
    • 58', Holer L. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
    • 58', Osterhage P. ↓, Yamamoto R. ↑,
    • 61', Gnabry S. ↓, Saibari I. ↑,
    • 61', Stanisic J. ↓, Boey S. ↑,
    • 63', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
    • 65', Tah J. 🟨,
    • 73', Brown N. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
    • 77', Scherhant D. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,
    • 77', Lienhart P. ↓, Rosenfelder M. ↑,
    • 82', 1 - 2, Bischof T. (Own goal),
    • 85', Eggestein M. 🟨,
    • 86', Karl L. ↓, Ito H. ↑,
    • 90+5', 1 - 3, Olise M. ⚽,

    Preview

  • One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 2nd in the Promotion - Champions League League phase).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 0.
  • Freiburg has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
  • Bayern is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
  • Freiburg may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
  • In this match, Bayern enters as the overwhelming favorite.
  • Confirmed absences for Bayern: Buchmann T. (Knee Injury) Diaz L. (Muscle Injury) Kim Min-Jae (Knee Injury) Kimmich J. (Personal Reasons) Musiala J. (Muscle Injury).
  • Doubtful / questionable for Freiburg: Engelhardt Y. (Injury) Yilmaz B. (Lacking Match Fitness).
  • In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Freiburg has recorded 1 win, 4 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:56 (averaging 1:2.8 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Freiburg against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with 10:22 goals (averaging 1.1:2.4 per game).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich752025:61917
    3Freiburg741216:9713

    Outrights of German Bundesliga for now
    Bayern Munich: 83.49% Freiburg: 0.85%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Bayern Munich - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 67.72%, but this team recently wins 83% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SC Freiburg
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    22.10.26 Monaco - Freiburg 3:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    18.10.26 Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg 2:1 ✺
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    15.10.26 Freiburg - Jablonec 3:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    11.10.26 Freiburg - Schalke 04 2:1 ✺
    Club Friendly
    03.10.26 Freiburg - Luzern 4:2
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7
    LLWWW
    - Bayern Munich
    UEFA Champions League
    21.10.26 Bayern Munich - Arsenal 2:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    17.10.26 Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig 6:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    13.10.26 Viking Stavanger - Bayern Munich 3:3 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    10.10.26 Augsburg - Bayern Munich 2:2 ✺
    18.09.26 Bayern Munich - Union Berlin 7:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6
    TWTTW
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    04.04.26 Freiburg - Bayern Munich 2:3
    22.11.25 Bayern Munich - Freiburg 6:2
    25.01.25 Freiburg - Bayern Munich 1:2
    01.09.24 Bayern Munich - Freiburg 2:0
    01.03.24 Freiburg - Bayern Munich 2:2
    08.10.23 Bayern Munich - Freiburg 3:0
    08.04.23 Freiburg - Bayern Munich 0:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - SC Freiburg
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    05.11.26 Trabzonspor - Freiburg ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Augsburg - Freiburg ✺
    - Bayern Munich
    UEFA Champions League
    03.11.26 Atlรฉtico Madrid - Bayern Munich ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund ✺

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