Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 15

Date: 22 December 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Benfica TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 1, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Benfica		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.5	10	Watch
	1.29	5.4	8.8	Watch
	1.34	5.21	8.82
	1.34	5.11	8.93	Watch
	1.33	5	8.5
	1.37	5.22	8.9	Watch
	1.33	4.75	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.34)	5.03 ↓ (5.09)	9.06 ↑ (8.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
70.9%

Draw
18.7%

Famalicão
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.7%

18.6%

10.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.4%

17.4%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	13.9%	5.6%

Benfica - Famalicão Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Famalicão (1.73) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -2 - Benfica (2.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (29 of 36 users predict this - 80.56%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.63% – 93.49%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 15 - 83.3%). Famalicão (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 25. Prestianni G. 8. Aursnes F. 10. Sudakov G. 14. Pavlidis V.	25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 16. De Haas J. 3. Realpe L. 5. Rafa Soares 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 21. Zabiri Y.
Substitutes
50. Ferreira D. (G) 88. Freitas T. 9. Ivanovic F. 16. Manu 3. Obrador R. 84. Rego J. 67. Rego R. 21. Schjelderup A. 4. Silva A.	55. Ba I. 18. Beney R. 12. Elisor S. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 8. Pena M. 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', De Haas J. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Pavlidis V. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Araujo T. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
69', De Amorim M. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
69', Rafa Soares ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
80', Sorriso ↓, Beney R. ↑,
81', Pavlidis V. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
81', Sudakov G. ↓, Rego R. ↑,
87', Prestianni G. ↓, Manu ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 3.

Benfica has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Famalicão has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Famalicão may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Benfica is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Barreiro L. (Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle)

There will not play in Famalicão: Abubakar U. (Inactive) Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Pastor G. (Inactive) Pedro Bondo (International duty)

We predict that Benfica will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 32:10. (average 2.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:2. (average 2.5:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Farense - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
14.12.25	Moreirense - Benfica	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Benfica - Napoli	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.12.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Nacional - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWTW
- FC Famalicão
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
14.12.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	4:0 ✺
06.12.25	Famalicão - Braga	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.01.25	Benfica - Famalicão	4:0
11.08.24	Famalicão - Benfica	2:0
05.05.24	Famalicão - Benfica	2:0
29.12.23	Benfica - Famalicão	3:0
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Benfica - Famalicão	2:0
Liga Portugal
03.03.23	Benfica - Famalicão	2:0
10.09.22	Famalicão - Benfica	0:1

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