Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 12

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2, Arena Sport 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV, Triller TV+


	Nacional		Benfica

	1	X	2
	8	4.75	1.33	Watch
	8.3	4.95	1.34	Watch
	9.19	5.33	1.37
	8.22	5.12	1.35	Watch
				Watch
	8.47	5.03	1.4	Watch
	7.5	5	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.28 ↑ (8.22)	5.03 ↓ (5.12)	1.36 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
11.4%

Draw
18.8%

Benfica
69.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.5%

18.5%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.1%

17.8%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	18.7%	62.5%

Nacional - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Benfica will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 50%). Benfica (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 38. Ze Vitor 34. Leo Santos 5. Jose Gomes 8. Baeza M. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 11. Paulinho Boia 9. Ramirez J. (C) 17. Nourani M.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 5. Barrenechea E. 18. Barreiro L. 67. Rego R. 10. Sudakov G. 8. Aursnes F. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
88. Deivison 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 15. Labidi C. 37. Lucas Franca (G) 26. Silva J. 18. Sousa A. 30. Watts 7. Witi	44. Araujo T. 9. Ivanovic F. 16. Manu 25. Prestianni G. 84. Rego J. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J. 66. Wynder J.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', Barrenechea E. 🟨,
55', Nourani M. 🟨,
58', Rego R. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
59', Nourani M. ↓, Witi ↑,
59', Baeza M. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Ramirez J. ⚽, Paulinho Boia (A),
64', Barrenechea E. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
65', Labidi C. 🟨,
71', Ramirez J. 🟨,
77', Barreiro L. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
78', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
84', Prestianni G. 🟨,
84', Paulinho Boia ↓, Silva J. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Prestianni G. ⚽, Dedic A. (A),
90+5', 1 - 2, Pavlidis V. ⚽, Schjelderup A. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0.

Recent performances by Nacional have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Benfica is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Nacional has had a series of away games.

In this match, Benfica is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I. (Inactive)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle) Rios R. (Yellow Cards) Santos L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nacional: Ulisses (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 18 matches, and goals 12:59. (average 0.6:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 8:25. (average 0.9:2.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Braga - Nacional	4:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Nacional - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Estoril Praia - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Rebordelo - Nacional	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTLTW
- SL Benfica
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Ajax - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.11.25	Atlético CP - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
01.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.03.25	Benfica - Nacional	3:0
19.12.24	Nacional - Benfica	0:2
11.05.21	Nacional - Benfica	1:3
25.01.21	Benfica - Nacional	1:1
10.02.19	Benfica - Nacional	10:0
02.09.18	Nacional - Benfica	0:4
05.02.17	Benfica - Nacional	3:0

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