Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 12

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	V+ TVI


	Moreirense		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.25	2.25
	3.05	3.05	2.38
	3.27	3.21	2.41
	3.63	3.32	2.07	Watch
	3.28	3.31	2.36	Watch
	3.14	3.1	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↓ (3.63)	3.21 ↓ (3.32)	2.31 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
29.3%

Draw
29.6%

Famalicão
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

28.4%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

28%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Famalicão could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Moreirense - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Famalicão will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 6.6% – 60%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Famalicão (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ferreira A. (G) 76. Pinto D. 44. Marcelo (C) 26. Maracas 27. Kiko 20. Bernardo 8. Stjepanovic M. 11. Alanzinho 2. Travassos 95. Guilherme Schettine 78. Landerson	25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 28. Pedro Bondo 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 21. Zabiri Y.
Substitutes
25. Assis A. 66. Batista G. 22. Caio (G) 10. Kiko Bondoso 3. Michel 21. Rodri 9. Semedo L. 15. Sousa V. 7. Teguia C.	12. Elisor S. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 8. Pena M. 5. Rafa Soares 3. Realpe L. 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Costa V.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Van de Looi T. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Zabiri Y. ⚽, Gil Dias (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Marcelo ↓, Kiko Bondoso ↑,
46', Kiko ↓, Michel ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Guilherme Schettine ⚽, Landerson (A),
57', 1 - 2, Sa G. ⚽, Ba I. (A),
64', Guilherme Schettine ↓, Semedo L. ↑,
64', Bernardo ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
73', Maracas 🟨,
73', De Haas J. 🟨,
75', Alanzinho 🟨,
79', Pinheiro R. 🟨,
81', 2 - 2, Pinto D. ⚽, Alanzinho (A),
81', Zabiri Y. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
83', Stjepanovic M. ↓, Assis A. ↑,
83', Carevic L. 🟨,
88', De Amorim M. 🟨,
88', Sousa V. 🟨,
88', Maracas 🟨,
90+3', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 1.

Moreirense is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Famalicão is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Famalicão may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Moreirense has had a series of away games.

Famalicão will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Moreirense: Kiko Bondoso (Inactive)

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Beney R. (Inactive) Pastor G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Ofori L. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.4:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Famalicão - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.58%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Braga - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Arouca - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
27.10.25	Moreirense - Porto	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Fafe - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Nacional - Moreirense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLLL
- FC Famalicão
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Famalicão - Porto	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Nacional - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	São João de Ver - Famalicão	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
23.02.25	Famalicão - Moreirense	2:0
21.09.24	Moreirense - Famalicão	0:0
28.01.24	Moreirense - Famalicão	1:0
21.08.23	Famalicão - Moreirense	0:0
13.02.22	Famalicão - Moreirense	5:0
12.09.21	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2
19.05.21	Moreirense - Famalicão	3:0

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