Match Info

League One - Round 45

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)

Referee: Busby J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Birmingham City		Mansfield Town

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	8	Watch
	1.44	4.5	6.5
	1.33	5	9.5	Watch
	1.34	5.19	8.99
	1.34	4.94	8.58	Watch
	1.44	4.33	6.5
	1.34	5.03	8.04	Watch
	1.33	5	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.61)	4.87 ↑ (3.9)	8.2 ↑ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
69.2%

Draw
19.3%

Mansfield Town
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

23.8%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

22.7%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Birmingham City's performance.

Mansfield Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mansfield Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Birmingham City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mansfield Town than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mansfield Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	0%	6.2%

Birmingham City - Mansfield Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Birmingham (1.85) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Birmingham City will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Birmingham (votes: 11 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Allsop R. (G) 2. Laird E. 4. Klarer C. (C) 25. Davies B. 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 13. Paik Seung-Ho 30. Dowell K. 18. Willumsson W. T. 14. Anderson K. 28. Stansfield J.	1. Pym C. (G) 23. Oshilaja A. 30. Vickers C. 14. Flint A. (C) 2. Williams G. 12. MacDonald C. 24. Craig M. 17. Baccus K. 9. Bowery J. 44. Boateng H. 29. Rhodes J.
Substitutes
19. Gardner-Hickman T. 31. Hanley G. 26. Harris L. 10. Jutkiewicz L. 12. Leonard M. 9. May A. 45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G)	41. Dwyer D. 13. Flinders S. (G) 10. Maris G. 3. McLaughlin S. 16. Quinn S. 25. Reed L. 21. Waine B.
Coaches
Davies C.	Clough N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Anderson K. ⚽, Willumsson W. T. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Willumsson W. T. ⚽, Stansfield J. (A),
44', Craig M. ↓, Reed L. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Williams G. ↓, Maris G. ↑,
50', 3 - 0, Dowell K. ⚽, Paik Seung-Ho (A),
57', 4 - 0, Iwata T. ⚽, Dowell K. (A),
62', Rhodes J. ↓, Waine B. ↑,
68', Willumsson W. T. ↓, Harris L. ↑,
68', Laird E. ↓, Gardner-Hickman T. ↑,
68', Anderson K. ↓, May A. ↑,
68', Dowell K. ↓, Jutkiewicz L. ↑,
72', MacDonald C. ↓, McLaughlin S. ↑,
72', Boateng H. ↓, Quinn S. ↑,
79', Paik Seung-Ho ↓, Leonard M. ↑,
90+1', Waine B. 🟨,
90+2', Davies B. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 19).

Birmingham is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Championship

Birmingham is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mansfield has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Mansfield could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Birmingham is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Dykes L. (Calf Injury) Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mansfield: Blake-Tracy F. (Inactive) Gregory L. (Inactive) Oates R. (Inactive) Quinn B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Birmingham: Bielik K. (Injury) Hansson E. (Knock)

There are questionable in Mansfield: Evans W. (Inactive) Lewis A. (Injury) MacDonald C. (Inactive) Quinn S. (Inactive)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Birmingham won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League One
24.04.25	Stevenage Borough - Birmingham City	0:1 ✺
21.04.25	Burton Albion - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
18.04.25	Birmingham City - Crawley Town	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
13.04.25	Birmingham City - Peterborough United	0:2 ✺
English League One
08.04.25	Peterborough United - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWTLW
- Mansfield Town
English League One
21.04.25	Mansfield Town - Reading	1:5 ✺
18.04.25	Rotherham United - Mansfield Town	3:3 ✺
08.04.25	Mansfield Town - Leyton Orient	2:3 ✺
05.04.25	Huddersfield Town - Mansfield Town	2:1 ✺
01.04.25	Mansfield Town - Charlton Athletic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.10.24	Mansfield Town - Birmingham City	1:1
Club Friendly
19.07.14	Mansfield Town - Birmingham City	Canceled

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