Match Info

USA: USL Championship

Date: 27 July 2024, Saturday

Location: Protective Stadium (Birmingham, AL)

Referee: Thompson M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


North-central-america	ESPNPlay Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Disney+


	Birmingham Legion		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.7	4.75
	1.63	3.75	5
	1.61	3.81	5.08
	1.64	3.86	5.07	Watch
	1.61	3.85	5.06	Watch
	1.59	3.85	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (2.02)	3.8 ↑ (3.4)	4.94 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham Legion
57.2%

Draw
24.2%

Orange County SC
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

26.6%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

26.2%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham Legion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Birmingham Legion's performance.

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orange County SC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Birmingham Legion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orange County SC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Birmingham Legion - Orange County SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Van Oekel M. (G) 14. Dodson D. 3. Kavita P. 21. Crognale A. 20. Paterson AJ 4. Hamouda R. 8. Hernandez-Foster K. 33. Mensah M. 19. Martinez E. 29. Stefano Pinho 11. McCartney D.	18. Gomez T. (G) 2. Lambe O. 30. Nakkim M. 12. Chavez J. 6. Fox A. 5. Powers D. 11. Jamison B. 15. Chattha A. 26. Scott K. 14. Flood R. 9. Zubak E.
Substitutes
47. Calloway F. 10. Kassim P. 15. Pasher T. 28. Perez M. 23. Preston T. 18. Spangenberg T. (G)	7. Dunbar C. 33. Miles A. 35. Norris B. 32. Ruiz N. 1. Shutler C. (G) 17. Sorto C.
Coaches
Soehn T.	Hardyman P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Scott K. 🟨,
10', Nakkim M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Hamouda R. ↓, Kassim P. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Stefano Pinho ⚽, McCartney D. (A),
59', Nakkim M. ↓, Sorto C. ↑,
59', Powers D. ↓, Norris B. ↑,
59', Chattha A. ↓, Hegardt C. ↑,
60', Paterson AJ ↓, Preston T. ↑,
75', Jamison B. ↓, Miles A. ↑,
75', Scott K. ↓, Dunbar C. ↑,
77', McCartney D. ↓, Pasher T. ↑,
77', Hernandez-Foster K. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
85', Martinez E. 🟨,
86', Lambe O. 🟨,
89', 2 - 0, Stefano Pinho ⚽, Pasher T. (A),
90+5', 3 - 0, Pasher T. ⚽, Preston T. (A),

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Birmingham is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Orange County SC is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Orange County SC could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Birmingham is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Birmingham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
20.07.24	New Mexico United - Birmingham Legion	1:1 ✺
17.07.24	Birmingham Legion - Rhode Island	1:3 ✺
13.07.24	Birmingham Legion - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:1 ✺
05.07.24	Charleston Battery - Birmingham Legion	2:0 ✺
29.06.24	Birmingham Legion - Louisville City	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLWLL
- Orange County SC
USL Championship
20.07.24	Orange County SC - San Antonio	2:0 ✺
13.07.24	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Orange County SC	2:0 ✺
06.07.24	Orange County SC - Memphis 901	4:1 ✺
03.07.24	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	2:0 ✺
29.06.24	Orange County SC - Oakland Roots	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
22.04.23	Orange County SC - Birmingham Legion	1:2

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