Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 11

Date: 3 October 2023, Tuesday

Location: Bloomfield Road (Blackpool)

Referee: Finnie W. (Eng)


	Blackpool		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	3.2
	2.25	3.3	3
	2.4	3.3	2.95	Watch
	2.44	3.24	3.17
	2.25	3.25	3.1
	2.32	3.22	3.13	Watch
	2.28	3.2	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.54)	3.24 ↓ (3.44)	3.1 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Blackpool
40.6%

Draw
29%

Derby County
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

27%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

26.6%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Blackpool has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Blackpool than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	41.7%	25%

Blackpool - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Blackpool will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Derby will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Grimshaw D. (G) 2. Connolly C. 20. Casey O. 3. Husband J. 7. Dale O. 6. Norburn O. (C) 12. Dougall K. 22. Hamilton C. 11. Dembele K. 16. Rhodes J. 10. Carey S.	1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 6. Cashin E. 35. Nelson C. 2. Wilson K. 8. Bird M. 22. Fornah T. 12. Smith K. 3. Forsyth C. (C) 11. Mendez-Laing N. 9. Collins J.
Substitutes
21. Ekpiteta M. 27. Kouassi K. 19. Lavery S. 8. Morgan A. 1. O'Donnell R. (G) 5. Pennington M. 15. Weir J.	7. Barkhuizen T. 5. Bradley S. 4. Hourihane C. 17. Sibley L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 10. Waghorn M. 14. Washington C.
Coaches
Critchley N.	Warne P.

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Blackpool won 1.

Blackpool is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Derby is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Blackpool will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Blackpool won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 7-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Blackpool won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Blackpool
English League One
30.09.23	Barnsley - Blackpool	0:1 ✺
23.09.23	Blackpool - Reading	4:1 ✺
16.09.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Blackpool	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Barrow - Blackpool	0:2 ✺
English League One
02.09.23	Blackpool - Wigan Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLWW
- Derby County
English League One
30.09.23	Derby County - Cambridge United	0:0 ✺
23.09.23	Carlisle United - Derby County	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
English League One
16.09.23	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
02.09.23	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
08.08.23	Derby County - Blackpool	0:2
English League Championship
30.04.22	Blackpool - Derby County	0:2
11.12.21	Derby County - Blackpool	1:0
14.04.15	Derby County - Blackpool	4:0
21.10.14	Blackpool - Derby County	0:1
08.04.14	Blackpool - Derby County	1:3
07.12.13	Derby County - Blackpool	5:1

Upcoming Matches