Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 6

Date: 2 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: Breakspear C. (Eng)


	Bolton Wanderers		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.3
	2.2	3.4	3.3
	2.24	3.5	3.33
	2.1	3.1	3.1
	2.15	3.45	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3.35	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.2)	3.37 ↑ (3.32)	3.25 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
43.1%

Draw
27.9%

Derby County
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.3%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

27.5%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

Bolton Wanderers - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Derby will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baxter N. (G) 2. Jones G. 5. Santos R. (C) 18. Toal E. 4. Thomason G. 12. Cogley J. 22. Dempsey K. 8. Sheehan J. 27. Williams R. 14. Adeboyejo V. 10. Charles D.	1. Wildsmith J. (G) 34. Rooney J. 35. Nelson C. 20. Elder C. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 12. Smith K. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 22. Fornah T. 3. Forsyth C. 10. Waghorn M. 14. Washington C.
Substitutes
9. Bodvarsson J. 15. Forrester W. 35. Jerome C. 19. Maghoma P. 7. Mendes Gomes C. 16. Morley A. 11. N'Lundulu D.	7. Barkhuizen T. 5. Bradley S. 6. Cashin E. 9. Collins J. 19. John-Jules T. 36. Radcliffe B. 31. Vickers J. (G)
Coaches
Evatt I.	Warne P.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bolton won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Derby could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bolton will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Bolton won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 10-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Bolton won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League Cup
29.08.23	Bolton Wanderers - Middlesbrough	1:3 ✺
English League One
26.08.23	Burton Albion - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
19.08.23	Bolton Wanderers - Wigan Athletic	0:4 ✺
15.08.23	Bolton Wanderers - Fleetwood Town	3:1 ✺
12.08.23	Cheltenham Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLWW
- Derby County
English League One
26.08.23	Peterborough United - Derby County	2:4 ✺
19.08.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
15.08.23	Derby County - Oxford United	1:2 ✺
12.08.23	Burton Albion - Derby County	0:3 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Derby County - Blackpool	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
21.01.23	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	2:1
27.12.22	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	0:0
English League Championship
13.04.19	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	4:0
29.09.18	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	1:0
07.04.18	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	3:0
19.08.17	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	1:2
09.04.16	Derby County - Bolton Wanderers	4:1

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