Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 10

Date: 30 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Derby County		Cambridge United

	1	X	2
	1.65	4	5
	1.62	4	5
	1.63	4	5	Watch
	1.65	4.18	5.21
	1.6	3.9	5.5
	1.61	3.98	5.3	Watch
	1.65	3.9	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.56)	3.99 ↓ (4.2)	5.12 ↓ (5.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
57.9%

Draw
23.6%

Cambridge United
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

22.4%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

21.9%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Cambridge United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Derby County - Cambridge United Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 3. Forsyth C. (C) 12. Smith K. 22. Fornah T. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 10. Waghorn M. 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Collins J.	25. Mannion W. (G) 2. Bennett L. 6. Bennett R. 5. Morrison M. 3. Andrew D. 4. Digby P. 8. Thomas G. 7. Brophy J. 10. Lankester J. 21. Kachunga E. 9. Okenabirhie F.
Substitutes
8. Bird M. 5. Bradley S. 26. Robinson D. 17. Sibley L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Washington C. 2. Wilson K.	23. Ahadme G. 24. Cousins J. 27. Gordon J. 16. Ibsen Rossi Z. 19. May A. 15. Okedina J. 1. Stevens J. (G)
Coaches
Warne P.	Bonner M.

Preview

The neighbours in a tournament table will play in a very interesting match (ranked 9 and 10).

Derby is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cambridge is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Derby could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
23.09.23	Carlisle United - Derby County	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
English League One
16.09.23	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
02.09.23	Bolton Wanderers - Derby County	2:1 ✺
26.08.23	Peterborough United - Derby County	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWTLW
- Cambridge United
English League One
23.09.23	Cambridge United - Port Vale	1:1 ✺
16.09.23	Wigan Athletic - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
12.09.23	Peterborough United - Cambridge United	2:0 ✺
English League One
04.09.23	Cambridge United - Reading	1:0 ✺
26.08.23	Leyton Orient - Cambridge United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
30.12.22	Derby County - Cambridge United	1:0
01.10.22	Cambridge United - Derby County	0:2

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