Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 29

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI (Porto)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport


	Boavista		Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.3	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.55
	3.2	3.25	2.3	Watch
	3.15	3.05	2.47	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.5	Watch
	3.19	3.22	2.46	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (3.07)	3.12 ↑ (3.08)	2.41 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boavista
30.8%

Draw
30.2%

Nacional
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

30.8%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boavista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	44.4%	33.3%

Boavista - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Boavista will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vaclik T. (G) 5. Lystsov V. 26. Abascal R. 13. Fogning S. 7. Agra S. 24. Perez S. (C) 18. Vukotic I. 20. Ferreira F. 21. Diaby A. 9. Bozenik R. 16. Silva J.	37. Lucas Franca (G) 22. Garcia 4. Ulisses 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 10. Esteves L. (C) 27. Soumare D. 71. Yamada F. 17. Daniel Penha 98. Paulinho Boia 95. Joel
Substitutes
11. Ariyibi G. 2. Camara I. 1. Cesar (G) 25. Dabo A. 27. Kakay O. 14. Kone M. 10. Reisinho M. 8. van Ginkel M. 19. Vitoria S.	70. Appiah A. 2. Aurelio J. 1. Encarnacao R. (G) 23. Isaac 15. Labidi C. 34. Leo Santos 7. Macedo R. 88. Matheus Dias 18. Sousa A.
Coaches
Couto J.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Joel ⚽, Yamada F. (A),
23', Esteves L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ferreira F. ↓, Kone M. ↑,
52', Daniel Penha 🟨,
57', Fogning S. 🟨,
69', Abascal R. 🟨,
70', Ze Vitor 🟨,
70', Bozenik R. 🟨,
72', Paulinho Boia ↓, Macedo R. ↑,
72', Daniel Penha ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
75', Yamada F. ↓, Appiah A. ↑,
81', Perez S. ↓, Reisinho M. ↑,
83', Camara I. 🟥,
89', Esteves L. ↓, Leo Santos ↑,
90', Lystsov V. ↓, Kakay O. ↑,
90', Silva J. ↓, Ariyibi G. ↑,
90+1', Lucas Franca 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 11).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Boavista: Agra S. (Yellow Cards) Joao Goncalves (Knee Injury) Llorente D. (Inactive) Machado T. (Inactive) Moraes Pires L. H. (Knee Injury) Ribeiro M. (Knee Injury) Silva T. (Injury)

There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Muscle Injury) Fernandes I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Boavista: Dabo A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Nacional: Ze Vitor (Lacking Match Fitness)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Boavista won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1 (average 0:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Boavista won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.61%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
07.04.25	Rio Ave - Boavista	0:2 ✺
01.04.25	Boavista - Gil Vicente	1:3 ✺
16.03.25	Moreirense - Boavista	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Boavista - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
02.03.25	Boavista - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WLLLW
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
06.04.25	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Santa Clara - Nacional	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Nacional - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
08.03.25	Benfica - Nacional	3:0 ✺
01.03.25	Nacional - Famalicão	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
30.11.24	Nacional - Boavista	0:0
09.02.21	Boavista - Nacional	0:1

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