Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alberto J. Armando (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Ecuador	ESPN
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	ERT 2
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN


	Boca Juniors		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.00	5.25	Watch
	1.85	3.10	4.80
	1.88	3.10	4.60	Watch
	1.93	3.04	5.25
	1.97	3.05	4.58	Watch
	1.82	3.10	5.40
	1.83	3.00	5.25	Watch
	1.85	3.05	4.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.79)	3.06 ↓ (3.36)	4.99 ↑ (4.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boca Juniors
50.3%

Draw
30.8%

São Paulo
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.9%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

27%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	15.8%	0%

Boca Juniors - São Paulo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Boca Juniors (2.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Boca Juniors will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Boca Juniors will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Boca Juniors (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Montero A. (G) 17. Lozano L. 2. Di Lollo L. 42. Herrera F. 3. Blanco L. 8. Belmonte T. 5. Paredes L. (C) 25. Ascacibar S. 20. Velasco A. 16. Miguel Merentiel 19. Flores L.	23. Rafael (G) 22. Duarte D. 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Sabino 19. Lucas Ramon 29. Pablo Maia 8. Marcos Antonio 12. Iago Borduchi 37. Artur 10. Luciano 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)
Substitutes
15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 11. Angel Romero 12. Brey L. (G) 7. Carlos Palacios 4. Figal J. 24. Gorosito D. 26. Pellegrino M. 23. Rey Domenech C. 46. Satas M. 30. Valencia E. 22. Villa S. 21. Zenon K.	17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 94. Danielzinho 48. Djhordney 34. dos Santos P. 11. Ferreira 28. Newton 43. Santana G. 2. Toloi R. 27. Victor Sa 18. Wendell
Coaches
Arruabarrena R.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Miguel Merentiel ⚽,
63', Luciano ↓, Santana G. ↑,
70', Jonathan Calleri 🟨,
79', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Villa S. ↑,
81', Marcos Antonio ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
82', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Djhordney ↑,
85', Velasco A. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
90+1', Artur ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
90+2', Pablo Maia ↓, Newton ↑,
90+4', Valencia E. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Now, both teams are in good form.

São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Boca Juniors has had a series of away games.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of home games.

In this match, Boca Juniors is a strong favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Boca Juniors: 34.22%

Last Results with these Odds

Boca Juniors - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 52.53%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.09.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Boca Juniors	2:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
02.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	0:1 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.08.26	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Racing - Boca Juniors	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.08.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Boca Juniors	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWWTW
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
05.09.26	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.08.26	São Paulo - Bolívar	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.08.26	São Paulo - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLWT

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