Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV, Mola
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Uruguay	DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Bolívar		Palestino

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	8.5	Watch
	1.24	6.25	10.5
	1.29	5.4	8.3	Watch
	1.33	5.76	8.42
				Watch
	1.25	5.8	9.5	Watch
	1.34	5.55	7.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.31)	5.71 ↑ (5.59)	8.77 ↑ (8.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolívar
72.7%

Draw
16.5%

Palestino
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.6%

16.8%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

15.2%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolívar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Palestino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bolívar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Bolívar - Palestino Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bolívar will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Palestino will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolívar: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palestino (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - no (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -2 - Bolívar (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 - Palestino (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolívar (votes: 1 - 25%). Palestino (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lampe C. (G) 2. Sagredo J. 27. Gariglio I. 5. Echeverria S. 4. Sagredo J. 23. Justiniano L. (C) 14. Robson Matheus 21. Velasquez J. 10. Catano D. 17. Pato Rodriguez 9. Cauteruccio M.	25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 28. Zuniga D. 42. Meza F. 13. Suarez C. 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 5. Fernandez J. 10. Martinez Arce A. E. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 14. Abrigo J. 11. Benitez J. 27. Marabel J.
Substitutes
99. Batallini D. 33. Lanzillotta F. (G) 80. Melgar C. A. 7. Mena F. 8. Paz L. 35. Rivero E. 22. Rocha Y. 77. Romero D. 26. Saavedra E. 18. Sabja L. 3. Torren M. 6. Vaca Moreno E.	18. Arias J. 16. Bizama J. 9. Castro F. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 26. Contreras D. (G) 12. Fernandez R. 23. Leon J. 8. Parra P. 1. Salas S. (G) 24. Salgado D. 22. Soto B. 20. Tapia Paez G.
Coaches
Robatto F.	Bovaglio L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Meza F. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', Gariglio I. ↓, Torren M. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Robson Matheus ⚽, Sagredo J. (A),
60', Velasquez J. ↓, Batallini D. ↑,
64', Benitez J. ↓, Parra P. ↑,
65', Carrasco B. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
69', Perez Kirby S. A. 🟨,
70', Marabel J. ↓, Fernandez R. ↑,
75', Catano D. ↓, Melgar C. A. ↑,
84', Garguez Gomez I. A. ↓, Leon J. ↑,
84', Abrigo J. ↓, Salgado D. ↑,
90+9', Castro F. 🟨,
90+10', 2 - 0, Cauteruccio M. (Pen),
90+13', 3 - 0, Melgar C. A. ⚽, Batallini D. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bolívar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bolívar is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bolívar won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 3.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Bolívar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolívar La Paz
Bolivian Copa Pacena
10.07.25	Bolívar - Nacional Potosí	2:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
07.07.25	Bolívar - Independiente Petroleros	4:0 ✺
29.06.25	Nacional Potosí - Bolívar	1:1 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
26.06.25	Nacional Potosí - Bolívar	3:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
22.06.25	Bolívar - The Strongest	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWTLL
- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Primera Division
21.06.25	Huachipato - Palestino	2:2 ✺
14.06.25	Palestino - Deportes La Serena	2:1 ✺
01.06.25	Palestino - Universidad Católica	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.05.25	Palestino - Mushuc Runa	0:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
24.05.25	Coquimbo Unido - Palestino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
28.05.24	Bolívar - Palestino	3:1
04.04.24	Palestino - Bolívar	0:4

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