Match Info

Championship - Round 12

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport OTT 3, SupeSport ESPN 2
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 4
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	06:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Mix
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 3
Brazil	16:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	22:00	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	ESPN 5
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 5, ESPN 7
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Ecuador	14:00	ESPN 5
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
Germany	21:00	Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
India	00:30	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	20:00	NOW
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	SuperSport 4
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	13:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	21:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport OTT 3, SupeSport ESPN 2
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Paraguay	16:00	ESPN 5
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 5, ESPN 7
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	03:00	mio Sports 3
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 4
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport OTT 3, SupeSport ESPN 2
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Sky Sport Mix
United Kingdom	20:00	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter


	Bolton Wanderers		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.50	1.46	Watch
	4.80	4.60	1.58
	5.20	4.20	1.56	Watch
	5.73	4.82	1.50
	4.55	4.33	1.66	Watch
	5.65	4.75	1.50
	5.18	4.66	1.58	Watch
	5.40	4.70	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.22 ↑ (4.14)	4.57 ↑ (3.9)	1.54 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
18.1%

Draw
20.7%

Middlesbrough
61.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

22.6%

23.9%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

23.5%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Middlesbrough's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Middlesbrough, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	16.7%	75%

Bolton Wanderers - Middlesbrough Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Bolton (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.53) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.44) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Middlesbrough will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Middlesbrough (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bazunu G. (G) 22. Larrazabal G. 18. Toal E. (C) 5. Brunt L. 14. Famewo A. 8. Sheehan J. 21. Erhahon E. 7. Dong K. 20. Rodrigues R. 11. Gale T. 9. Bair T.	1. Vitek R. (G) 2. Brittain C. (C) 4. Phillips A. 29. Malanda A. 30. Neto Borges 10. Morris A. 6. Berhalter S. 11. Cozier-Duberry A. 8. McGree R. 9. Conway T. 7. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
1. Bonham J. (G) 25. Conway M. 10. Dalby S. 6. Davies B. 39. Hardie R. 16. Iling Junior S. 17. Ito A. 4. Simons X. 27. Stephenson L.	17. Arfsten M. 12. Ayling L. 18. Barron C. 31. Brynn S. (G) 3. Byram S. 19. Castledine L. 22. Joseph K. 14. Peart-Harris M. 16. Sarmiento J.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
13', 0 - 1, Morris A. ⚽, Cozier-Duberry A. (A),
31', 0 - 2, Lankshear W. ⚽, Conway T. (A),
39', 0 - 3, Brunt L. (Own goal),
45+2', 1 - 3, Bair T. ⚽, Larrazabal G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Famewo A. ↓, Conway M. ↑,
46', Rodrigues R. ↓, Ito A. ↑,
55', Bair T. ↓, Dalby S. ↑,
55', Erhahon E. ↓, Hardie R. ↑,
63', Sheehan J. 🟨,
69', Conway T. ↓, Arfsten M. ↑,
73', 1 - 4, Cozier-Duberry A. ⚽, McGree R. (A),
74', Dong K. ↓, Simons X. ↑,
78', 1 - 5, Lankshear W. ⚽, McGree R. (A),
79', McGree R. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
79', Cozier-Duberry A. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
79', Lankshear W. ↓, Joseph K. ↑,
86', Berhalter S. ↓, Peart-Harris M. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 15th and 3rd in the Promotion - Championship Playoffs - Semi - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 0.

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

Middlesbrough carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Bolton: Nelson J. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Middlesbrough: Jones A. (Calf Injury) Pukstas R. (Injury) Strelec D. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Bolton: Forino-Joseph C. (Groin Injury).

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Bolton has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:26 (averaging 0.6:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bolton against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 7:15 goals (averaging 1:2.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27:17	10	25
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	16:23	-7	14

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.26% Bolton: 0.66%

Last Results with these Odds

Middlesbrough - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 53.49%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League Championship
17.10.26	Southampton - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
13.10.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Bolton Wanderers	1:3 ✺
10.10.26	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
20.09.26	Norwich City - Bolton Wanderers	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.4 TWLWW
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
17.10.26	Middlesbrough - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
13.10.26	Stoke City - Middlesbrough	2:3 ✺
10.10.26	Middlesbrough - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Birmingham City - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
15.09.26	Middlesbrough - Millwall	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
29.08.23	Bolton Wanderers - Middlesbrough	1:3
English League Championship
09.04.19	Bolton Wanderers - Middlesbrough	0:2
19.09.18	Middlesbrough - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
26.12.17	Middlesbrough - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
09.09.17	Bolton Wanderers - Middlesbrough	0:3
16.04.16	Bolton Wanderers - Middlesbrough	1:2
15.08.15	Middlesbrough - Bolton Wanderers	3:0

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