Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 26

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Nield T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+


	Middlesbrough		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	5.75	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.75
	1.54	4.28	5.92	Watch
	1.56	4.31	5.53	Watch
	1.53	4	6
	1.54	4.3	5.85	Watch
	1.54	4.28	5.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.61)	4.22 ↑ (4.11)	5.82 ↑ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
61.4%

Draw
22.4%

Cardiff City
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

22.9%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

22.2%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Cardiff City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	25%	16.7%

Middlesbrough - Cardiff City Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Middlesbrough will win (votes: 14 - 58.3%). Cardiff will win (votes: 4 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 38.6% – 78%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Glover T. (G) 15. Dijksteel A. 6. Fry D. 3. van den Berg R. 30. Neto Borges 4. Barlaser D. 7. Hackney H. (C) 50. Doak B. 20. Azaz F. 10. Burgzorg D. 9. Latte Lath E.	21. Alnwick J. (C) 35. Rinomhota A. 4. Goutas D. 5. Daland J. 11. O'Dowda C. 3. Siopis M. 12. Chambers C. 45. Ashford C. 18. Robertson A. 32. Tanner O. 27. Colwill R.
Substitutes
5. Clarke M. 38. Connor S. (G) 25. Edmundson G. 27. Engel L. 14. Gilbert A. 17. Hamilton M. 11. Jones I. 49. McCabe L. 8. McGree R.	23. Bagan J. 2. Fish W. 1. Horvath E. (G) 15. Kanga W. 44. Kpakio R. 19. Meite Y. 38. Ng P. 8. Ralls J. 16. Willock C.
Coaches
Carrick M.	Riza O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Latte Lath E. ⚽, Doak B. (A),
21', 1 - 1, Chambers C. ⚽,
30', O'Dowda C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Tanner O. ↓, Willock C. ↑,
67', Burgzorg D. ↓, Jones I. ↑,
75', Doak B. 🟨,
75', Azaz F. ↓, Gilbert A. ↑,
76', Rinomhota A. 🟨,
79', Ashford C. ↓, Bagan J. ↑,
79', Colwill R. ↓, Meite Y. ↑,
80', Robertson A. 🟨,
83', Robertson A. ↓, Ralls J. ↑,
84', Neto Borges ↓, Engel L. ↑,
89', Barlaser D. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Middlesbrough won 4.

Middlesbrough is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Cardiff is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Middlesbrough is a favorite.

There will not play in Cardiff: Robinson C. (Red Card) Simic R. (Knock)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Lenihan D. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Etete K. (Leg Injury) Ramsey A. (Muscle Injury) Tsunoda R. (Muscle Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Middlesbrough won 10 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 28:20 (average 1.4:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Middlesbrough won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15:13 (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
01.01.25	Hull City - Middlesbrough	0:1 ✺
29.12.24	Middlesbrough - Burnley	0:0 ✺
26.12.24	Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday	3:3 ✺
21.12.24	Plymouth Argyle - Middlesbrough	3:3 ✺
14.12.24	Middlesbrough - Millwall	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTTTW
- Cardiff City
English League Championship
01.01.25	Cardiff City - Coventry City	1:1 ✺
29.12.24	Watford - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
26.12.24	Oxford United - Cardiff City	3:2 ✺
21.12.24	Cardiff City - Sheffield United	0:2 ✺
14.12.24	Stoke City - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
31.08.24	Cardiff City - Middlesbrough	0:2
27.04.24	Cardiff City - Middlesbrough	1:4
03.10.23	Middlesbrough - Cardiff City	2:0
11.02.23	Cardiff City - Middlesbrough	1:3
13.09.22	Middlesbrough - Cardiff City	2:3
27.04.22	Middlesbrough - Cardiff City	2:0
23.10.21	Cardiff City - Middlesbrough	0:2

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