Match Info

Championship - Round 8

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Birmingham City		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.6	2.25	Watch
	2.7	3.6	2.45
	2.85	3.50	2.32	Watch
	2.77	3.70	2.51
	2.65	3.62	2.51	Watch
	2.75	3.60	2.45
	2.69	3.44	2.42	Watch
	2.65	3.55	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↓ (2.89)	3.58 ↑ (3.48)	2.42 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
34.5%

Draw
26.4%

Middlesbrough
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

26.8%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

25.7%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Middlesbrough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Birmingham City - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Birmingham will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 4% – 71%.

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.57) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beadle J. (G) 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 5. Neumann P. 4. Klarer C. (C) 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 14. Solis Romero J. E. 7. Vicente C. 28. Stansfield J. 17. Millar L. 32. Vazquez L.	1. Vitek R. (G) 12. Ayling L. (C) 4. Phillips A. 29. Malanda A. 2. Brittain C. 10. Morris A. 8. McGree R. 17. Arfsten M. 11. Cozier-Duberry A. 14. Peart-Harris M. 7. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
21. Allsop R. (G) 3. Buchanan L. 33. Ducksch M. 23. Fry D. 2. Laird E. 25. Lund K. 40. Mazwi M. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 16. Roberts P.	6. Berhalter S. 31. Brynn S. (G) 3. Byram S. 9. Conway T. 22. Joseph K. 30. Neto Borges 21. Pukstas R. 16. Sarmiento J. 13. Strelec D.
Coaches
Davies C.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Vazquez L. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Arfsten M. ⚽, Cozier-Duberry A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', 1 - 1, Millar L. ⚽, Solis Romero J. E. (A),
59', 2 - 1, McGree R. (Own goal),
63', Peart-Harris M. ↓, Conway T. ↑,
63', McGree R. ↓, Berhalter S. ↑,
71', Vazquez L. ↓, Ducksch M. ↑,
74', Cozier-Duberry A. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
83', Stansfield J. ↓, Paik Seung-Ho ↑,
86', Arfsten M. ↓, Neto Borges ↑,
86', Phillips A. ↓, Joseph K. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Malanda A. ⚽,
88', Neumann P. 🟨,
90+1', Vicente C. ↓, Roberts P. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 10th and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Championship PlayoffsSemi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birmingham won 0.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Birmingham could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Birmingham: Bird M. (Inactive) Gardner-Hickman T. (Injury) Leonard M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Wright S. (Off the roster).

Confirmed absences for Middlesbrough: Jones A. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Birmingham: Gray D. (Injury) Roberts P. (Health problems).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Birmingham has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:30 (averaging 0.7:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Birmingham against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with 9:20 goals (averaging 0.9:2 per game).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.64% Birmingham: 2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17:12	5	18
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	13:11	2	14

Last Results with these Odds

Birmingham City - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.33%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Middlesbrough - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.82%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English League Championship
12.09.26	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Norwich City - Birmingham City	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Birmingham City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Birmingham City - Southampton	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Wrexham - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLTTW
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
15.09.26	Middlesbrough - Millwall	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Middlesbrough - Norwich City	4:3 ✺
English League Cup
08.09.26	Crystal Palace - Middlesbrough	3:0 ✺
English League Championship
05.09.26	Queens Park Rangers - Middlesbrough	0:1 ✺
02.09.26	Burnley - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
02.03.26	Birmingham City - Middlesbrough	1:3
08.11.25	Middlesbrough - Birmingham City	2:1
12.03.24	Birmingham City - Middlesbrough	0:1
21.10.23	Middlesbrough - Birmingham City	1:0
02.01.23	Birmingham City - Middlesbrough	1:3
05.10.22	Middlesbrough - Birmingham City	1:0
15.03.22	Birmingham City - Middlesbrough	0:2

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