Match Info

Championship - Round 6

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Madley R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	Paramount+, SportsEngine Play


	Middlesbrough		Millwall

	1	X	2
	1.37	5.00	7.00	Watch
	1.44	5.00	6.25
	1.47	4.40	6.10	Watch
	1.43	5.00	7.36
	1.43	4.8	6.89	Watch
	1.41	5.00	7.35
	1.42	5.07	7.10	Watch
	1.40	4.90	6.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.92)	4.9 ↑ (3.5)	6.83 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
66.7%

Draw
19.4%

Millwall
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

26.7%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.7%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Middlesbrough's performance.

Millwall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Millwall might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-18%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Middlesbrough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Millwall could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	18.7%	0%

Middlesbrough - Millwall Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Middlesbrough (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.55) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - yes (1.73) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Middlesbrough will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitek R. (G) 2. Brittain C. 12. Ayling L. (C) 4. Phillips A. 30. Neto Borges 10. Morris A. 6. Berhalter S. 11. Cozier-Duberry A. 8. McGree R. 9. Conway T. 7. Lankshear W.	15. Crocombe M. (G) 2. Osei-Tutu J. 6. Taylor C. 5. Cooper J. (C) 3. Sturge Z. 14. Metcalfe J. 49. Mazou-Sacko D. 17. Sykes M. 13. Dykes L. 10. Neghli C. 7. Arconte T.
Substitutes
17. Arfsten M. 31. Brynn S. (G) 3. Byram S. 19. Castledine L. 22. Joseph K. 14. Peart-Harris M. 21. Pukstas R. 16. Sarmiento J. 13. Strelec D.	12. Baggott E. 23. Batth D. 25. Cundle L. 35. Issoufou Y. 16. Kelly D. 29. Lovelace Z. 34. Marschall F. (G) 44. Massey A. 55. Parkes T.
Coaches
Hellberg K.	Neil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Arconte T. ⚽, Neghli C. (A),
36', 0 - 2, Dykes L. ⚽, Taylor C. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Berhalter S. ↓, Joseph K. ↑,
46', Neto Borges ↓, Arfsten M. ↑,
46', Conway T. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
50', 1 - 2, Cozier-Duberry A. ⚽,
56', Dykes L. ↓, Baggott E. ↑,
59', Mazou-Sacko D. 🟨,
61', 2 - 2, Lankshear W. ⚽, Ayling L. (A),
66', McGree R. 🟨,
75', Metcalfe J. ↓, Kelly D. ↑,
75', Arconte T. ↓, Lovelace Z. ↑,
78', McGree R. ↓, Peart-Harris M. ↑,
84', Sturge Z. ↓, Cundle L. ↑,
84', Sykes M. ↓, Issoufou Y. ↑,
85', Cozier-Duberry A. ↓, Strelec D. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 3.

Middlesbrough is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Millwall is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Middlesbrough is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:16. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Middlesbrough won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 1.4:0.6).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.64% Millwall: 2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16:12	4	15
11	Millwall	8	3	2	3	15:15	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Millwall - the odds 3.8 are the expected chance of winning is 24.6%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
12.09.26	Middlesbrough - Norwich City	4:3 ✺
English League Cup
08.09.26	Crystal Palace - Middlesbrough	3:0 ✺
English League Championship
05.09.26	Queens Park Rangers - Middlesbrough	0:1 ✺
02.09.26	Burnley - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Middlesbrough - West Bromwich Albion	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWTW
- Millwall
English League Championship
12.09.26	Blackburn Rovers - Millwall	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.09.26	Millwall - Newcastle United	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
05.09.26	Millwall - Bolton Wanderers	4:0 ✺
02.09.26	Millwall - Wrexham	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Southampton - Millwall	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
03.04.26	Middlesbrough - Millwall	1:2
16.08.25	Millwall - Middlesbrough	0:3
12.04.25	Millwall - Middlesbrough	1:0
14.12.24	Middlesbrough - Millwall	1:0
13.01.24	Millwall - Middlesbrough	1:3
05.08.23	Middlesbrough - Millwall	0:1
14.01.23	Middlesbrough - Millwall	1:0

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