Match Info

Championship - Round 9

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV App
Argentina	11:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	01:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	11:00	Disney+, N Sports
Canada	10:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	11:00	Disney+
Colombia	09:00	Disney+
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Finland	17:00	Viaplay
Iceland	14:00	Viaplay
India	19:30	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	23:00	DAZN Japan
Mexico	08:00	Disney+
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:00	beIN Connect
Norway	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	09:00	Disney+
Singapore	22:00	mio Sports 1
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay
Uruguay	11:00	Disney+
Usa	10:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+


	Bolton Wanderers		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.40	2.45	Watch
	2.70	3.30	2.55
	2.55	3.35	2.60	Watch
	2.92	3.40	2.54
	2.74	3.44	2.52	Watch
	2.85	3.35	2.50
	2.76	3.48	2.56	Watch
	2.70	3.35	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.51)	3.38 ↓ (3.44)	2.53 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
34.6%

Draw
28%

Stoke City
37.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.4%

27.3%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

27.5%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Bolton will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Stoke will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bazunu G. (G) 22. Larrazabal G. 18. Toal E. (C) 6. Davies B. 25. Conway M. 8. Sheehan J. 21. Erhahon E. 7. Dong K. 20. Rodrigues R. 11. Gale T. 10. Dalby S.	1. Johansson V. (C) 16. Wilmot B. 40. Talovierov M. 5. Graham L. 2. Johnson B. 27. Soumare D. 8. Galbraith E. 17. Bocat E. 13. Devenny J. 11. Cisse L. 7. McGlynn J.
Substitutes
9. Bair T. 1. Bonham J. (G) 5. Brunt L. 14. Famewo A. 39. Hardie R. 16. Iling Junior S. 17. Ito A. 26. Nelson J. 4. Simons X.	10. Bae Jun-Ho 21. Bombino L. 9. Bozenik R. 24. Griffiths J. (G) 15. Hirst G. 18. Lawal B. 42. Manhoef M. 4. Pearson B. 22. Tchamadeu J.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Talovierov M. 🟥,
34', McGlynn J. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Cisse L. ⚽, Galbraith E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Devenny J. ↓, Bombino L. ↑,
46', Erhahon E. ↓, Ito A. ↑,
56', Gale T. ↓, Nelson J. ↑,
56', Dong K. ↓, Iling Junior S. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Wilmot B. ⚽, McGlynn J. (A),
63', Rodrigues R. ↓, Hardie R. ↑,
69', Soumare D. ↓, Lawal B. ↑,
69', Cisse L. ↓, Hirst G. ↑,
69', McGlynn J. ↓, Tchamadeu J. ↑,
72', Conway M. 🟨,
82', Davies B. ↓, Bair T. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, Bair T. ⚽, Larrazabal G. (A),

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 15th and 7th in the Promotion - Championship Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

Bolton has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Stoke is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Bolton: Brunt L. (Hamstring Injury) Forino-Joseph C. (Groin Injury) Stephenson L. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Stoke: Cresswell A. (Knee Injury) Ingelsson S. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Stoke: Galbraith E. (Injury).

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Bolton has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:7 (averaging 0.6:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bolton against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 1:3 goals (averaging 0.3:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Stoke	12	6	2	4	18:16	2	20
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	16:23	-7	14

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Bolton: 0.66%

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 37.39%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Stoke City - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 35.31%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League Championship
20.09.26	Norwich City - Bolton Wanderers	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	1:0 ✺
08.09.26	Bolton Wanderers - West Ham United	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Millwall - Bolton Wanderers	4:0 ✺
01.09.26	Sheffield United - Bolton Wanderers	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWLLL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
19.09.26	Stoke City - Sheffield United	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Watford - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Cardiff City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Stoke City - Charlton Athletic	4:0 ✺
01.09.26	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.24	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	0:1
English League Championship
29.12.18	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	0:0
02.10.18	Stoke City - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
Club Friendly
29.07.17	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	1:2
English Premier League
13.05.12	Stoke City - Bolton Wanderers	2:2

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