Match Info

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday


	Bolton Wanderers		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.40	2.45	Watch
	2.70	3.40	2.50
	2.55	3.35	2.60
	2.78	3.45	2.57
	2.72	3.42	2.51	Watch
	2.75	3.30	2.50
	2.71	3.28	2.49	Watch
	2.65	3.35	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.51)	3.37 ↓ (3.44)	2.52 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
34.9%

Draw
27.8%

Stoke City
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

27.3%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

27.5%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 15th and 7th in the Promotion - Championship Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In recent outings, Bolton has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Stoke is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Bolton has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:7 (averaging 0.6:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bolton against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 1:3 goals (averaging 0.3:1 per game).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Bolton: 0.74%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Stoke	8	4	1	3	13:12	1	13
15	Bolton	8	3	1	4	11:15	-4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 37.39%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Stoke City - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 35.31%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League Championship
20.09.26	Norwich City - Bolton Wanderers	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	1:0 ✺
08.09.26	Bolton Wanderers - West Ham United	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Millwall - Bolton Wanderers	4:0 ✺
01.09.26	Sheffield United - Bolton Wanderers	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWLLL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
19.09.26	Stoke City - Sheffield United	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Watford - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Cardiff City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Stoke City - Charlton Athletic	4:0 ✺
01.09.26	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.24	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	0:1
English League Championship
29.12.18	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	0:0
02.10.18	Stoke City - Bolton Wanderers	2:0
Club Friendly
29.07.17	Bolton Wanderers - Stoke City	1:2
English Premier League
13.05.12	Stoke City - Bolton Wanderers	2:2

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