Match Info

Championship - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Vicarage Road (Watford)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Watford		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.20	3.25	Watch
	2.30	3.30	3.10
	2.30	3.25	3.05	Watch
	2.35	3.40	3.27
	2.38	3.4	2.95	Watch
	2.30	3.35	3.25
	2.30	3.32	3.27	Watch
	2.29	3.25	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.48)	3.31 ↓ (3.34)	3.15 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
41.2%

Draw
28.7%

Stoke City
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

27.9%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.2%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Watford than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Watford - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Watford will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Stoke will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Watford: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Watford (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ravaglia F. (G) 4. Keben K. 6. Pollock M. (C) 3. Coulibaly S. 33. Zemura J. 39. Kayembe E. 5. Kyprianou H. 7. Maamma O. 17. Bravo I. 45. Mavididi S. 20. Doumbia M.	1. Johansson V. (C) 16. Wilmot B. 40. Talovierov M. 5. Graham L. 2. Johnson B. 13. Devenny J. 27. Soumare D. 8. Galbraith E. 17. Bocat E. 11. Cisse L. 7. McGlynn J.
Substitutes
18. Antonio M. 26. Bachmann D. (G) 56. Eames A. 9. Kjerrumgaard L. 21. Nabizada A. 23. Traore O. H. 11. Vata R. 24. Walker S. (G)	43. Anderson F. 21. Bombino L. 9. Bozenik R. 23. Gibson B. 24. Griffiths J. (G) 15. Hirst G. 42. Manhoef M. 4. Pearson B. 19. Rigo T.
Coaches
Dionisi A.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Bravo I. 🟨,
33', Soumare D. 🟨,
42', Zemura J. ↓, Traore O. H. ↑,
45+4', 0 - 1, McGlynn J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 0 - 2, Bocat E. ⚽, Cisse L. (A),
58', Mavididi S. ↓, Vata R. ↑,
58', Maamma O. ↓, Nabizada A. ↑,
65', Cisse L. ↓, Hirst G. ↑,
69', Bravo I. ↓, Kjerrumgaard L. ↑,
80', Bocat E. ↓, Bombino L. ↑,
82', Hirst G. 🟨,
90', McGlynn J. ↓, Pearson B. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Nabizada A. ⚽, Kayembe E. (A),
90+3', Nabizada A. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Watford won 2.

Watford is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Stoke's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Watford: Baah K. (Knock) Boadu M. (Injury) Bola M. (Hamstring Injury) Grieves J. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There will not play in Stoke: Cresswell A. (Knee Injury) Gibson B. (Head Injury) Ingelsson S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Watford: Akomeah T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Mlacic B. (Inactive) Ngakia J. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Ampah A. (Hamstring Injury) Gallagher S. (Injury) Lawal B. (Inactive) Tchamadeu J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Watford won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Watford won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.3:1.1).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Watford: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Stoke	9	5	1	3	15:13	2	16
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7:14	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

Watford - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.71%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English League Championship
08.09.26	Watford - Preston North End	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	West Bromwich Albion - Watford	1:0 ✺
01.09.26	Swansea City - Watford	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Watford - West Ham United	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Watford - Peterborough United	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLLTL
- Stoke City
English League Championship
08.09.26	Cardiff City - Stoke City	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Stoke City - Charlton Athletic	4:0 ✺
01.09.26	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Stoke City	4:1 ✺
English League Cup
25.08.26	Stoke City - Hull City	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
14.03.26	Stoke City - Watford	3:1
20.12.25	Watford - Stoke City	1:0
01.03.25	Stoke City - Watford	0:0
17.08.24	Watford - Stoke City	3:0
29.12.23	Watford - Stoke City	1:1
19.08.23	Stoke City - Watford	1:0
08.05.23	Watford - Stoke City	2:0

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