Match Info

Championship - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Ewood Park (Blackburn)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Blackburn Rovers		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.85	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.8
	2.46	3.25	2.95	Watch
	2.52	3.3	3.04
	2.61	3.16	2.75	Watch
	2.48	3.41	3	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.38)	3.27 ↓ (3.29)	2.87 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Blackburn Rovers
37.6%

Draw
29.2%

Stoke City
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

28.4%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

28.7%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Blackburn Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blackburn Rovers than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	25%	31.2%

Blackburn Rovers - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Blackburn will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Stoke will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Blackburn: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Blackburn (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Stoke (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Stoke (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Blackburn (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Blackburn (votes: 2 - 40%). Stoke (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Toth B. (G) 2. Alebiosu R. 12. Miller L. 15. McLoughlin S. 4. Ribeiro Y. 6. Tronstad S. 5. Gardner-Hickman T. 25. Morishita R. 10. Cantwell T. (C) 19. Hedges R. 11. Gudjohnsen A.	1. Johansson V. (G) 22. Tchamadeu J. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 3. Cresswell A. 19. Rigo T. 12. Seko T. 42. Manhoef M. 10. Bae J. 7. Thomas S. 9. Mubama D.
Substitutes
14. De Neve D. 9. Gueye M. 18. Henriksson A. 7. Kargbo A. 31. Montgomery K. 23. Ohashi Y. 1. Pears A. (G) 3. Pickering H. 16. Wharton S.	17. Bocat E. 13. Bonham J. (G) 11. Bozenik R. 29. Cisse L. 14. Donley J. 57. Mears J. 15. N'Zonzi S. 4. Pearson B. 40. Talovierov M.
Coaches
Ismael V.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Alebiosu R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Rigo T. 🟨,
49', 0 - 1, Manhoef M. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
59', Gudjohnsen A. ↓, Ohashi Y. ↑,
59', Morishita R. ↓, Kargbo A. ↑,
67', Mubama D. ↓, Bozenik R. ↑,
67', Rigo T. ↓, N'Zonzi S. ↑,
67', Ribeiro Y. ↓, De Neve D. ↑,
80', Bae J. ↓, Donley J. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Kargbo A. ⚽, Cantwell T. (A),
90+1', Thomas S. ↓, Cisse L. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+2', Gardner-Hickman T. ↓, Gueye M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Blackburn won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Blackburn: Baradji M. (Inactive) Carter H. (Inactive) Garrett J. (Surgery)

There will not play in Stoke: Gallagher S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Blackburn: Mullarkey-Matthews L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Stoke: Baker L. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Blackburn won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Blackburn won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Stoke City - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.3%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Blackburn Rovers
English League Championship
30.09.25	Blackburn Rovers - Swansea City	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Charlton Athletic - Blackburn Rovers	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Watford - Blackburn Rovers	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Blackburn Rovers - Norwich City	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Hull City - Blackburn Rovers	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLWLW
- Stoke City
English League Championship
30.09.25	Middlesbrough - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Queens Park Rangers - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Stoke City - Birmingham City	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Stoke City - West Bromwich Albion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
12.03.25	Stoke City - Blackburn Rovers	1:0
06.11.24	Blackburn Rovers - Stoke City	0:2
10.02.24	Blackburn Rovers - Stoke City	3:1
25.11.23	Stoke City - Blackburn Rovers	0:3
10.03.23	Stoke City - Blackburn Rovers	3:2
27.08.22	Blackburn Rovers - Stoke City	0:1
18.04.22	Blackburn Rovers - Stoke City	0:1

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