Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 27 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 6
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 6
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 6
Ecuador	ESPN 6
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 6
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 6, Inter


	Bolívar		Independiente Rivadavia

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.6	2.7	Watch
	2.55	3.75	2.4
	2.38	3.35	2.82	Watch
	2.32	3.38	2.84
	2.49	3.44	2.74	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.75
	2.48	3.44	2.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.8)	3.45 ↓ (4.05)	2.73 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolívar
38.5%

Draw
27.2%

Independiente Rivadavia
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

23.5%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

23.4%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolívar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Independiente Rivadavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Rivadavia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Rivadavia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87%	5.6%	7.4%

Bolívar - Independiente Rivadavia Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Bolívar will win (votes: 47 - 87%). Independiente R will win (votes: 4 - 7.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolívar: 78% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bolívar (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Bolívar (1.78) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bolívar will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolívar (votes: 11 - 91.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lampe C. (G) 2. Sagredo J. 3. Arreaga X. 27. Gariglio I. 4. Sagredo J. 14. Robson Matheus 23. Justiniano L. (C) 80. Melgar C. A. 77. Romero D. 9. Cauteruccio M. 17. Pato Rodriguez	1. Bolcato N. (G) 14. Gomez L. 40. Villalba I. 42. Studer S. (C) 3. Elordi J. M. 5. Bottari T. 8. Bucca L. 11. Rios G. 10. Fernandez M. 25. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 43. Sartori F.
Substitutes
18. Chavez Cruz L. L. 5. Echeverria S. 35. Freita E. 19. Garcia J. 13. Mendez D. (G) 11. Oyola B. 8. Paz L. 26. Saavedra E. 20. Sejas C. 6. Vaca Moreno E. 15. Vedia C. 7. Velasquez J.	19. Atencio R. 36. Bonifacio E. 2. Costa L. 27. Crego D. 21. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 34. Moreyra S. 13. Osella A. 7. Ramis V. 20. Riep A. 77. Sequeira L. 32. Vazquez K. A. 22. Villa S.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Berti A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Studer S. 🟨,
41', Pato Rodriguez 🟨,
45', Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 🟨,
45+6', Elordi J. M. 🟨,
45+7', 0 - 1, Bucca L. ⚽, Fernandez M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', 1 - 1, Cauteruccio M. ⚽, Robson Matheus (A),
58', Florentin Bobadilla J. I. ↓, Villa S. ↑,
67', Fernandez M. ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
67', Studer S. ↓, Costa L. ↑,
72', Sartori F. ↓, Crego D. ↑,
72', Bucca L. ↓, Riep A. ↑,
76', Melgar C. A. ↓, Chavez Cruz L. L. ↑,
76', Sagredo J. ↓, Paz L. ↑,
79', Arreaga X. 🟨,
81', Pato Rodriguez ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
81', Gariglio I. ↓, Echeverria S. ↑,
84', Robson Matheus ↓, Saavedra E. ↑,
86', Gomez L. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Villa S. ⚽, Elordi J. M. (A),
90+5', 1 - 3, Crego D. ⚽,

Preview

Independiente R is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Bolívar is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Independiente R has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Independiente R may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bolívar has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Bolívar: Mena F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Independiente R: Macagno R. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bolívar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Ind. Rivadavia: 1.93%

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Rivadavia - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.57%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolívar La Paz
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Fluminense - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
16.05.26	Universitario de Vinto - Bolívar	3:2 ✺
13.05.26	Bolívar - Nacional Potosí	1:1 ✺
10.05.26	Blooming - Bolívar	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Bolívar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTTT
- Independiente Rivadavia
Copa Libertadores
21.05.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Independiente Rivadavia	2:4 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.05.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Unión Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.26	Aldosivi - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Bolívar	1:0

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