Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: de Vivar M. D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Deportivo La Guaira		Independiente Rivadavia

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.8	Watch
	4.4	3.3	1.83
	4.7	3.25	1.82	Watch
	4.96	3.46	1.85
	4.54	3.31	1.89	Watch
	4.5	3.2	1.8
	4.99	3.39	1.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.69 ↑ (4.54)	3.34 ↓ (3.35)	1.83 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo La Guaira
20.1%

Draw
28.2%

Independiente Rivadavia
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

28.2%

51%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

27.5%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo La Guaira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Independiente Rivadavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Guaira than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	15.4%	76.9%

Deportivo La Guaira - Independiente Rivadavia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Deportivo La Guaira will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Independiente R will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente R: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Deportivo La Guaira (2.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo La Guaira (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Varela C. (C) 16. Martinez L. 24. Ortiz G. 3. Osio D. 5. Gianoli M. 20. Gutierrez J. 77. Arace R. 27. Correa J. 6. Faya C. 18. Rivas Y. 36. Londono F.	1. Bolcato N. (G) 14. Gomez L. 2. Costa L. 42. Studer S. 3. Elordi J. M. 5. Bottari T. 25. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 11. Rios G. 10. Fernandez M. 22. Villa S. (C) 9. Arce A.
Substitutes
19. Ascanio G. 32. Caceres F. 10. Castellanos J. 14. Da Silva C. 33. Hernandez N. 13. Ibarra R. 7. Meza J. 8. Perdomo J. 21. Rodriguez A. 12. Sanchez J. (G) 22. Sulbaran M. 9. Uribe A.	19. Atencio R. 36. Bonifacio E. 8. Bucca L. 27. Crego D. 21. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 34. Moreyra S. 13. Osella A. 7. Ramis V. 20. Riep A. 43. Sartori F. 32. Vazquez K. A. 40. Villalba I.
Coaches
Bidoglio H.	Berti A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Arce A. ⚽, Villa S. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Osio D. ⚽, Ortiz G. (A),
34', 1 - 2, Villa S. ⚽, Fernandez M. (A),
44', Rivas Y. 🟨,
44', Gomez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Arace R. ↓, Meza J. ↑,
46', Gianoli M. ↓, Castellanos J. ↑,
60', Faya C. ↓, Perdomo J. ↑,
60', Correa J. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
60', 1 - 3, Arce A. ⚽,
61', Ortiz G. 🟨,
73', Rivas Y. ↓, Sulbaran M. ↑,
74', Gomez L. ↓, Bonifacio E. ↑,
74', Rios G. ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
74', Bottari T. ↓, Vazquez K. A. ↑,
76', 1 - 4, Arce A. ⚽, Fernandez M. (A),
79', Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 🟨,
80', Florentin Bobadilla J. I. ↓, Bucca L. ↑,
80', 2 - 4, Castellanos J. ⚽,
86', Arce A. ↓, Sartori F. ↑,
90+7', Perdomo J. 🟨,

Preview

Independiente R is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Deportivo La Guaira may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Independiente R has had a series of home games.

In this match, Independiente R is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Independiente R: Macagno R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Deportivo La Guaira: Perdomo J. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportivo La Guaira won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Ind. Rivadavia: 1.93%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo La Guaira
Venezuelan Primera Division
15.05.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Universidad Central	0:0 ✺
12.05.26	Universidad Central - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Portuguesa Acarígua	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Bolívar	1:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.26	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTTTT
- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.05.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Unión Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.26	Aldosivi - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira	4:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira	4:1

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