Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 11 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports


	Bolívar		Millonarios

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.77	3.75	4.1
	1.72	3.95	4.25	Watch
	1.76	4.25	5.2
	1.78	3.92	4.44
	1.62	3.9	4.4	Watch
	1.77	3.92	4.33	Watch
	1.69	3.9	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.57)	3.94 ↓ (4.27)	4.45 ↓ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is -0.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolívar
54.7%

Draw
24%

Millonarios
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.8%

22%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

21.3%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolívar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bolívar's form might have worsened.

Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bolívar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Bolívar - Millonarios Predictions

Users Predictions: Bolívar will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lampe C. (G) 22. Rocha Y. 44. Orihuela R. 2. Sagredo J. 4. Sagredo J. 20. Saucedo F. 23. Justiniano L. 11. Vaca R. 17. Rodriguez P. 19. Da Costa F. 10. Bruno Savio	31. Montero A. (G) 22. Alfonzo D. 29. Moreno Paz A. F. 4. Vargas J. P. 37. Hernandez J. 21. Pereira J. 8. Giraldo D. 7. Rodriguez E. 18. Ruiz D. 10. Catano D. 23. Castro L.
Substitutes
9. Algaranaz C. 12. Desabato A. (G) 28. Mendez B. 6. Ordonez A. 8. Paz L. 15. Paz P. 30. Uzeda J. 27. Vaca H. 33. Vaca Moreno E. 21. Velasquez J. 7. Villarroel M.	33. Arevalo Chaparro J. N. 9. Carvajal J. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 32. Giordana S. 42. Largacha J. 34. Navarro S. 12. Novoa D. (G) 13. Quinones Y. 1. Romero Jimenez C. A. (G) 6. Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 28. Vega S. 24. Victoria Palacios D. S.
Coaches
Robatto F.	Gamero A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Sagredo J. ⚽, Vaca R. (A),
10', 2 - 0, Da Costa F. ⚽,
15', Vargas J. P. 🟨,
25', Rocha Y. 🟥,
34', 3 - 0, Bruno Savio ⚽, Saucedo F. (A),
38', Bruno Savio 🟨,
38', Castro L. 🟨,
45+1', 3 - 1, Castro L. ⚽, Ruiz D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Giraldo D. ↓, Vega S. ↑,
46', Rodriguez E. ↓, Giordana S. ↑,
72', 3 - 2, Castro L. (Pen),
75', Da Costa F. 🟨,
78', Rodriguez P. ↓, Algaranaz C. ↑,
82', Pereira J. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
83', Vaca R. ↓, Vaca H. ↑,
90+2', Ruiz D. ↓, Quinones Y. ↑,
90+6', Alfonzo D. 🟥,

Preview

Recent matches Bolívar is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Millonarios is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Millonarios could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bolívar is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolívar La Paz
Bolivian Division Profesional
07.04.24	GVCD San José - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Palestino - Bolívar	0:4 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
31.03.24	Bolívar - Oriente Petrolero	4:2 ✺
14.03.24	Bolívar - Jorge Wilstermann	2:1 ✺
10.03.24	The Strongest - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWWL
- Millonarios FC
Copa Libertadores
02.04.24	Millonarios - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
30.03.24	Fortaleza CEIF - Millonarios	1:2 ✺
27.03.24	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	3:1 ✺
23.03.24	Millonarios - Deportivo Cali	1:1 ✺
17.03.24	Envigado - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWWTT

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